Exposure Resilience Sensitivity Developing countries Social-ecological systems Climate change a b s t r a c tMeasuring the vulnerability of human populations to environmental change is increasingly being used to develop appropriate adaptation policies and management plans for different economic sectors. We developed a national-level vulnerability index that is specific to food security policies by measuring nations' relative vulnerabilities to a decline in their coral reef fisheries. Coral reef fisheries are expected to decline with climate and anthropogenic disturbances, which may have significant consequences for food security. The vulnerability measure was composed of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators specific to fisheries, reef management, and food security. The vulnerability index was used to evaluate 27 countries, as data required to fully populate the theoretical framework was limited. Of these, Indonesia and Liberia were identified as most and Malaysia and Sri Lanka as least vulnerable nations. Our analysis revealed two common national vulnerability characterizations: low income countries with low adaptive capacity and middle-income countries with higher adaptive capacity but high sensitivity. These results suggest developing contextspecific policies and actions to build adaptive capacity in the low-income countries, and to decrease sensitivity in middle-income countries. Comparing our food security evaluation to a more general vulnerability approach shows that they produce different priority countries and associated policies.

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a key variable that bridges remote sensing observations to the quantification of agroecosystem processes. In this study, we assessed the universality of the relationships between crop LAI and remotely sensed Vegetation Indices (VIs). We first compiled a global dataset of 1459 in situ quality-controlled crop LAI measurements and collected Landsat satellite images to derive five different VIs including Simple Ratio (SR), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), two versions of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI and EVI2), and Green Chlorophyll Index (CIGreen). Based on this dataset, we developed global LAI-VI relationships for each crop type and VI using symbolic regression and Theil-Sen (TS) robust estimator. Results suggest that the global LAI-VI relationships are statistically significant, crop-specific, and mostly non-linear. These relationships explain more than half of the total variance in ground LAI observations (R2 >0.5), and provide LAI estimates with RMSE below 1.2 m2/m2. Among the five VIs, EVI/EVI2 are the most effective, and the crop-specific LAI-EVI and LAI-EVI2 relationships constructed by TS, are robust when tested by three independent validation datasets of varied spatial scales. While the heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes leads to a diverse set of local LAI-VI relationships, the relationships provided here represent global universality on an average basis, allowing the generation of large-scale spatial-explicit LAI maps. This study contributes to the operationalization of large-area crop modeling and, by extension, has relevance to both fundamental and applied agroecosystem research.

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Cholera epidemics have a recorded history in the eastern Africa region dating to 1836. Cholera is now endemic in the Lake Victoria basin, a region with one of the poorest and fastest growing populations in the world. Analyses of precipitation, temperatures, and hydrological characteristics of selected stations in the Lake Victoria basin show that cholera epidemics are closely associated with El Niño years. Similarly, sustained temperatures high above normal (T(max)) in two consecutive seasons, followed by a slight cooling in the second season, trigger an outbreak of a cholera epidemic. The health and socioeconomic systems that the lake basin communities rely upon are not robust enough to cope with cholera outbreaks, thus rendering them vulnerable to the impact of climate variability and change. Collectively, this report argues that communities living around the Lake Victoria basin are vulnerable to climate-induced cholera that is aggravated by the low socioeconomic status and lack of an adequate health care system. In assessing the communities' adaptive capacity, the report concludes that persistent levels of poverty have made these communities vulnerable to cholera epidemics.

Abstract:The assessment of land degradation and the quantification of its effects on land productivity have been both a scientific and political challenge. After four decades of Earth Observation (EO) applications, little agreement has been gained on the magnitude and direction of land degradation in the Sahel. The large number of EO datasets and methods associated with the complex interactions among biophysical and social drivers of ecosystem changes make it difficult to apply aggregated EO indices for these non-linear processes. Hence, while many studies stress that the Sahel is greening, others indicate no trend or browning. The different generations of sensors, the granularity of studies, the study period, the applied indices and the assumptions and/or computational methods impact these trends. Consequently, many uncertainties exist in regression models between rainfall, biomass and various indices that limit the ability of EO science to adequately assess and develop a consistent message on the magnitude of land degradation. We suggest several improvements: (1) harmonize time-series data, (2) promote knowledge networks, (3) improve data-access, (4) fill data gaps, (5) agree on scales and assumptions, (6) set up a denser network of long-term field-surveys and (7)