SignificanceExposure to outdoor concentrations of fine particulate matter is considered a leading global health concern, largely based on estimates of excess deaths using information integrating exposure and risk from several particle sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution and passive/active smoking). Such integration requires strong assumptions about equal toxicity per total inhaled dose. We relax these assumptions to build risk models examining exposure and risk information restricted to cohort studies of outdoor air pollution, now covering much of the global concentration range. Our estimates are severalfold larger than previous calculations, suggesting that outdoor particulate air pollution is an even more important population health risk factor than previously thought.

BackgroundRelatively few studies have been conducted of the association between air pollution and emergency department (ED) visits, and most of these have been based on a small number of visits, for a limited number of health conditions and pollutants, and only daily measures of exposure and response.MethodsA time-series analysis was conducted on nearly 400,000 ED visits to 14 hospitals in seven Canadian cities during the 1990s and early 2000s. Associations were examined between carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5), and visits for angina/myocardial infarction, heart failure, dysrhythmia/conduction disturbance, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and respiratory infections. Daily and 3-hourly visit counts were modeled as quasi-Poisson and analyses controlled for effects of temporal cycles, weather, day of week and holidays.Results24-hour average concentrations of CO and NO2 lag 0 days exhibited the most consistent associations with cardiac conditions (2.1% (95% CI, 0.0–4.2%) and 2.6% (95% CI, 0.2–5.0%) increase in visits for myocardial infarction/angina per 0.7 ppm CO and 18.4 ppb NO2 respectively; 3.8% (95% CI, 0.7–6.9%) and 4.7% (95% CI, 1.2–8.4%) increase in visits for heart failure). Ozone (lag 2 days) was most consistently associated with respiratory visits (3.2% (95% CI, 0.3–6.2%), and 3.7% (95% CI, -0.5–7.9%) increases in asthma and COPD visits respectively per 18.4 ppb). Associations tended to be of greater magnitude during the warm season (April – September). In particular, the associations of PM10 and PM2.5with asthma visits were respectively nearly three- and over fourfold larger vs. all year analyses (14.4% increase in visits, 95% CI, 0.2–30.7, per 20.6 μg/m3 PM10 and 7.6% increase in visits, 95% CI, 5.1–10.1, per 8.2 μg/m3 PM2.5). No consistent associations were observed between three hour average pollutant concentrations and same-day three hour averages of ED visits.ConclusionIn this large multicenter analysis, daily average concentrations of CO and NO2 exhibited the most consistent associations with ED visits for cardiac conditions, while ozone exhibited the most consistent associations with visits for respiratory conditions. PM10 and PM2.5 were strongly associated with asthma visits during the warm season.

The effectiveness of regulatory actions designed to improve air quality is often assessed by predicting changes in public health resulting from their implementation. Risk of premature mortality from long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is the single most important contributor to such assessments and is estimated from observational studies generally assuming a log-linear, no-threshold association between ambient concentrations and death. There has been only limited assessment of this assumption in part because of a lack of methods to estimate the shape of the exposure-response function in very large study populations. In this paper, we propose a new class of variable coefficient risk functions capable of capturing a variety of potentially non-linear associations which are suitable for health impact assessment. We construct the class by defining transformations of concentration as the product of either a linear or log-linear function of concentration multiplied by a logistic weighting function. These risk functions can be estimated using hazard regression survival models with currently available computer software and can accommodate large population-based cohorts which are increasingly being used for this purpose. We illustrate our modeling approach with two large cohort studies of long-term concentrations of ambient air pollution and mortality: the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS II) cohort and the Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohort (CanCHEC). We then estimate the number of deaths attributable to changes in fine particulate matter concentrations over the 2000 to 2010 time period in both Canada and the USA using both linear and non-linear hazard function models.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11869-016-0398-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background:Comorbidity of depression, heart disease, and migraine has been observed in clinical practice, while ambient air pollution has been identified among different risk factors for these health conditions. Suicide attempts and ideations as the result of depression may be linked to air pollution exposure. Therefore the effects of ambient air pollution on emergency department (ED) visits for suicide attempts were investigated.Methods:Emergency visit data were collected in a hospital in Vancouver, Canada. The generalized linear mixed models technique was applied in the analysis of these data. A natural hierarchical structure of the data was used to define the clusters, with days nested in a 3-level structure (day of week, month, year). Poisson models were fitted to the clustered counts of ED visits with a single air pollutant, temperature and relative humidity. In addition, the case-crossover methodology was used with the same data for comparison. The analysis was performed by gender (all, males, females) and month (all: January–December, warm: April–September, cold: October–March).Results:Both hierarchical and case-crossover methods confirmed positive and statistically significant associations among carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter (PM10) for all suicide attempts in the cold period. The largest increase was observed for males in the cold period for a 1-day lagged exposure to NO2, with an excess risk of 23.9% (95% CI: 7.8, 42.4) and odds ratio of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.41). In warm months the associations were not statistically significant, and the highest positive value was obtained for ozone lagged by 1 day.Conclusion:The results indicate a potential association between air pollution and emergency department visits for suicide attempts.

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