We analyze data of 27 global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the African continent during the twenty-first century. The temperature and precipitation changes are computed for two future time slices, 2030–2059 (near term) and 2070–2099 (long term), relative to the present climate (1981–2010), for the entire African continent and its eight subregions. The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projected a continuous and significant increase in the mean annual temperature over all of Africa and its eight subregions during the twenty-first century. The mean annual temperature over Africa for the near (long)-term period is projected to increase by 1.2 °C (1.4 °C), 1.5 °C (2.3 °C), and 1.8 °C (4.4 °C) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for weak, moderate, and strong forcing, referenced as SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The future warming is not uniform over Africa and varies regionally. By the end of the twenty-first century, the largest rise in mean annual temperature (5.6 °C) is projected over the Sahara, while the smallest rise (3.5 °C) is over Central East Africa, under the strong forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario. The projected boreal winter and summer temperature patterns for the twenty-first century show spatial distributions similar to the annual patterns. Uncertainty associated with projected temperature over Africa and its eight subregions increases with time and reaches a maximum by the end of the twenty-first century. On the other hand, the precipitation projections over Africa during the twenty-first century show large spatial variability and seasonal dependency. The northern and southern parts of Africa show a reduction in precipitation, while the central parts of Africa show an increase, in future climates under the three reference scenarios. For the near (long)-term periods, the area-averaged precipitation over Africa is projected to increase by 6.2 (4.8)%, 6.8 (8.5)%, and 9.5 (15.2)% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The median warming simulated by the CMIP6 model ensemble remains higher than the CMIP5 ensemble over most of Africa, reaching as high as 2.5 °C over some regions, while precipitation shows a mixed spatial pattern.

An experimental study, investigating the mean flow and turbulence in the wind drift layer formed beneath short wind waves was conducted. The degree to which these flows resemble the flows that occur in boundary layers adjacent to solid walls (i.e. wall-layers) was examined. Simultaneous DPIV (digital particle image velocimetry) and infrared imagery were used to investigate these near-surface flows at a fetch of 5.5 m and wind speeds from 4.5 to 11 m s−1. These conditions produced short steep waves with dominant wavelengths from 6 cm to 18 cm. The mean velocity profiles in the wind drift layer were found to be logarithmic and the flow was hydrodynamically smooth at all wind speeds. The rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy was determined to be significantly greater in magnitude than would occur in a comparable wall-layer. Microscale breaking waves were detected using the DPIV data and the characteristics of breaking and non-breaking waves were compared. The percentage of microscale breaking waves increased abruptly from 11% to 80% as the wind speed increased from 4.5 to 7.4 m s− and then gradually increased to 90% as the wind speed increased to 11 m s−. At a depth of 1 mm, the rate of dissipation was 1.7 to 3.2 times greater beneath microscale breaking waves compared to non-breaking waves. In the crest–trough region beneath microscale breaking waves, 40% to 50% of the dissipation was associated with wave breaking. These results demonstrated that the enhanced near-surface turbulence in the wind drift layer was the result of microscale wave breaking. It was determined that the rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy due to wave breaking is a function of depth, friction velocity, wave height and phase speed as proposed by Terray et al. (1996). Vertical profiles of the rate of dissipation showed that beneath microscale breaking waves there were two distinct layers. Immediately beneath the surface, the dissipation decayed as ζ−0.7 and below this in the second layer it decayed as ζ−2. The enhanced turbulence associated with microscale wave breaking was found to extend to a depth of approximately one significant wave height. The only similarity between the flows in these wind drift layers and wall-layers is that in both cases the mean velocity profiles are logarithmic. The fact that microscale breaking waves were responsible for 40%–50% of the near-surface turbulence supports the premise that microscale breaking waves play a significant role in enhancing the transfer of gas and heat across the air–sea interface.

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We report the results from a laboratory investigation in which microscale breaking waves were detected using an infrared (IR) imager and two-dimensional (2-D) velocity fields were simultaneously measured using particle image velocimetry (PIV). In addition, the local heat transfer velocity was measured using the controlled flux technique. To the best of our knowledge these are the first measurements of the instantaneous 2-D velocity fields generated beneath microscale breaking waves. Careful measurements of the water surface profile enabled us to make accurate estimates of the near-surface velocities using PIV. Previous experiments have shown that behind the leading edge of a microscale breaker the cool skin layer is disrupted creating a thermal signature in the IR image [Jessup et al., J. Geophys. Res. 102, 23145 (1997)]. The simultaneously sampled IR images and PIV data enabled us to show that these disruptions or wakes are typically produced by a series of vortices that form behind the leading edge of the breaker. When the vortices are first formed they are very strong and coherent but as time passes, and they move from the crest region to the back face of the wave, they become weaker and less coherent. The near-surface vorticity was correlated with both the fractional area coverage of microscale breaking waves and the local heat transfer velocity. The strong correlations provide convincing evidence that the wakes produced by microscale breaking waves are regions of high near-surface vorticity that are in turn responsible for enhancing air–water heat transfer rates.