Captive Asian elephants Elephas maximus, used as work animals, constitute up to 22-30% of remaining Asian elephants. Myanmar has the largest captive population worldwide ($6000), maintained at this level for over a century. We used published demographic data to assess the viability of this captive population. We tested how this population can be self-sustained, how many elephants must be supplemented from the wild to maintain it, and what consequences live capture may have for Myanmar's wild population. Our results demonstrate that the current captive population is not self-sustaining because mortality is too high and birth rates are too low. Our models also suggest $100 elephants year À1 have been captured in the wild to supplement the captive population. Such supplementation cannot be supported by a wild population of fewer than 4000 elephants. Given the most recent expert estimate of $2000 wild elephants remaining in Myanmar, a harvest of 100 elephants year À1 could result in extinction of the wild population in 31 years. Continued live capture threatens the survival of wild and captive populations and must stop. In addition, captive breeding should be increased. These measures are essential to slow the decline and extinction of all of Myanmar's elephants.

An effective protected area system is essential for the long-term conservation of Myanmar's biodiversity. This study examined the attitudes of 2915 residents in 97 communities around three protected areas (PAs) in upper Myanmar: Alaungdaw Kathapa National Park in the western mountains, Htamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary in the hills bordering the Chindwin and Uru rivers, and Chatthin Wildlife Sanctuary in the central dry zone. Logistic regression indicated a positive attitude toward the PAs was most highly correlated with a perception of conservation benefits and benefits resulting from management of the areas. Attitude was also significantly correlated with a perception of extraction benefits, conflicts with PA staff and crop damage by wildlife. Socioeconomic variables were less powerful than perceptions in predicting attitude and, unlike perceptions, their effects varied among the areas. The much greater effect of perceptions, especially positive ones, on people's attitudes indicates that understanding perceptions is important to improving the relationship between local residents and these PAs. This finding underscores the fact that a focus on conflicts to understand people's attitudes toward PAs may undervalue or miss critical positive perceptions that people hold. Understanding local residents' perceptions of PAs makes possible the creation of strategic, place-based management strategies that build on people's positive perceptions and mitigate their negative perceptions.

No abstract

Despite its value for conservation decision-making, we lack information on population abundances for most species. Because establishing large-scale monitoring schemes is rarely feasible, statistical methods that combine multiple data sources are promising approaches to maximize use of available information. We built a Bayesian hierarchical model that combined different survey data of the endangered Eld’s deer in Shwesettaw Wildlife Sanctuary (SWS) in Myanmar and tested our approach in simulation experiments. We combined spatially-restricted line-transect abundance data with more spatially-extensive camera-trap occupancy data to enable estimation of the total deer abundance. The integrated model comprised an ecological model (common to both survey types, based on the equivalence between cloglog-transformed occurrence probability and log-transformed expected abundance) and separate observation models for each survey type. We estimated that the population size of Eld’s deer in SWS is c. 1519 (1061–2114), suggesting it is the world’s largest wild population. The simulations indicated that the potential benefits of combining data include increased precision and better sampling of the spatial variation in the environment, compared to separate analysis of each survey. Our analytical approach, which integrates the strengths of different survey methods, has widespread application for estimating species’ abundances, especially in information-poor regions of the world.

Tropical dry forests are more threatened, less protected and especially susceptible to deforestation. However, most deforestation research focuses on tropical rain forests. We analyzed spatial and temporal changes in land cover from 1972 through 2005 at Chatthin Wildlife Sanctuary (CWS), a tropical dry forest in Myanmar (Burma). CWS is one of the largest protected patches of tropical dry forest in Southeast Asia and supports over half the remaining wild population of the endangered Eld's deer. Between 1973 and 2005, 62% of forest was lost at an annual rate of 1.86% in the area, while forest loss inside CWS was only 16% (0.45% annually). Based on trends found during our study period, dry forests outside CWS would not persist beyond 2019, while forests inside CWS would persist for at least another 100 years. Analysis of temporal deforestation patterns indicates the highest rate of loss occurred between 1992 and 2001. Conversion to agriculture, shifting agriculture, and flooding from a hydro-electric development were the main deforestation drivers. Fragmentation was also severe, halving the area of suitable Eld's deer habitat between 1973 and 2001, and increasing its isolation. CWS protection efforts were effective in reducing deforestation rates, although deforestation effects extended up to 2 km into the sanctuary. Establishing new protected areas for dry forests and finding ways to mitigate human impacts on existing forests are both needed to protect remaining dry forests and the species they support.