The evaluation of gridded precipitation products is important for the region where meteorological stations are scarce. To find out the applicable gridded precipitation products in arid Central Asia (ACA) for better follow-up research, this paper evaluated the accuracy of five long-term gridded precipitation products (GPCC, CRU, MERRA-2, ERA5-Land, and PREC/L) and two short-term products (PERSIANN-CDR and GPM IMERG) on different time scales for the whole ACA and two subregions, Central Asia (CA) and Xinjiang of China (XJ). Seven evaluation indices were used to evaluate the consistency between the seven gridded precipitation products and observations at 328 meteorological stations for 40 years from 1980 to 2019. The main findings were as follows: (1) Each product can correctly reflect the trend of decreasing annual precipitation in CA and increasing annual precipitation in XJ, except for ERA5-Land. (2) GPCC captured extreme events by 75.9% for heavy rainfall and 67.9% for drought events, and GPM IMERG outperformed PERSIANN-CDR with a capture probability of 61% for heavy rainfall and 50% for drought events. (3) Annually, except for GPCC and CRU without significant deviations (BIAS < 2%), ERA5-Land, GPM IMERG, and PERSIANN-CDR generally overestimated precipitation (20% < BIAS < 60%). MERRA-2 and PREC/L underestimated precipitation, with approximately −5% for PREC/L and −20% for MERRA-2. (4) Seasonally, GPCC outperformed the other four long-term products in all seasons with the lowest BIAS (<0.93%), and GPM IMERG (BIAS < 30.88%) outperformed PERSIANN-CDR. (5) Monthly, the areas with large deviations (BIAS > 60%) for the seven products were near the Tianshan Mountains; comparatively, they performed better in CA than in XJ, with BIAS approximately 20% for CA and 40% for XJ. Despite regional differences, GPCC performed the best across the five long-term products overall, followed by CRU, MERRA-2, PREC/L, and ERA5-Land. For the two short-term products, GPM IMERG outperformed PERSIANN-CDR.

Simulated historical extreme precipitation is evaluated for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models using precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The indices of 33 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are evaluated against corresponding indices with observations from the Global Climate Center Precipitation Dataset (GPCC V2020) over five sub-regions across Arid Central Asia (ACA), using the Taylor diagram, interannual variability skill score (IVS) and comprehensive rating index (MR). Moreover, we compare four multi-model ensemble approaches: arithmetic average multi-model ensemble (AMME), median multi-model ensemble (MME), pattern performance-based multi-model ensemble (MM-PERF) and independence weighted mean (IWM). The results show that CMIP6 models have a certain ability to simulate the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation in ACA and the best ability to simulate simple daily intensity (SDII), but it is difficult to capture the spatial bias of consecutive wet days (CWD). Almost all models represent different degrees of wet bias in the southern Xinjiang (SX). Most GCMs are generally able to capture extreme precipitation trends, but to reproduce the performance of interannual variability for heavy precipitation days (R10mm), SDII and CWD need to be improved. The four multi-model ensemble methods can reduce the internal system bias and variability within individual models and outperform individual models in capturing the spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation. However, significant uncertainties remain in the simulation of extreme precipitation indices in SX and Tianshan Mountain (TM). Comparatively, IWM simulations of extreme precipitation in the ACA and its sub-regions are more reliable. The results of this study can provide a reference for the application of GCMs in ACA and sub-regions and can also reduce the uncertainty and increase the reliability of future climate change projections through the optimal multi-model ensemble method.

Understanding the future drought condition is critical to coping with the challenge of climate change. This study evaluated the simulation capability of 30 Global Climate Models (GCMs) provided by the Coupled Model InterComparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and temperature (T) in arid Central Asia (ACA), and estimated the dry-wet climatic characteristics and trends under four SSP-RCPs (Shared Socio-economic Path-Representative Concentration Path scenarios, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). Results show that the 30 CMIP6 GCMs have robust simulation ability for precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature (p &lt; 0.01) over arid Central Asia. The delta-corrected multi-model ensemble mean (Delta-MME) outperforms GWR-corrected one (GWR-MME) and single models. In the future, the precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature will increase at different rates under the four SSP-RCPs. Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the regions with faster precipitation and temperature rise, and the northern of arid Central Asia are the main area with the rapid growth of potential evapotranspiration. Arid Central Asia will face more severe drought, especially under high emission scenarios. In the near-term the drought will reduce at a certain extent, but the trend of drought will still be prominent in the mid and long term. Overall, drought in arid Central Asia will show an overall characteristic of decreasing drought number but increasing drought frequency, drought duration, and drought intensity. Drought risk is likely to be higher in Xinjiang of China, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The research can provide a scientific basis for the decision-making of water resources planning and management and socio-economic development of arid Central Asia.