RESUMOEste artigo apresenta modelos de geração de viagens para sete categorias de empreendimentos (casas noturnas, condomínios residenciais, escolas de ensino fundamental e médio, hospitais, instituições de ensino superior, shopping centers e supermercados) para Belo Horizonte. Contagem classificada volumétrica de veículos, entrevistas e dados de controle de acesso foram utilizados para identificar as características dos empreendimentos e desenvolver os modelos. Os modelos desenvolvidos apresentaram boa correlação entre as variáveis utilizadas e significância estatística, exceto para condomínios residenciais e supermercados. A validação dos modelos indicou uma boa aproximação com os dados coletados em campo. A comparação com os modelos da literatura nacional indicou que investigar e desenvolver estudos para uma cidade é importante quando há necessidade de utilizá-los em estudos de impacto viário para determinação de medidas mitigadoras na implantação dos empreendimentos de impacto. Desta forma, os modelos locais são mais precisos e tendem a produzir menores erros na projeção, permitindo uma avaliação mais confiável e adequada das medidas mitigadoras necessárias para o empreendimento. ABSTRACTThis paper presents trip generation models for Belo Horizonte, considering seven categories of enterprises (nightclubs, residential condominiums, elementary and high schools, hospitals, higher education institutions, shopping centers, and supermarkets). Counting and classification of traffic volume, interviews and access control data were used to identify characteristics of each type of enterprise and to develop the models. A good fit among the variables collected was achieved, except to the categories residential condominiums, and supermarkets. The models show a strong correlation among the variables considered, besides their statistical significance. A comparative analysis of models from the Brazilian literature indicated that the development of such models are important for urban areas to assess traffic impact and to determine mitigation strategies due to the implementation of large enterprises. Local models are more precise and have the tendency to produce smaller errors in estimates, permitting a more reliable and accurate evaluation of the mitigation strategies that should be implemented. Palavras-chaves:Modelos de geração de viagens. Polos geradores de viagens. Belo Horizonte.

The fact that rainfall data are usually more abundant and more readily regionalized than streamflow data has motivated hydrologists to conceive methods that incorporate the hydrometeorologial information into flood frequency analyses. Some of them, particularly those derived from the French GRADEX method, involve assumptions concerning the relationship between extreme rainfall and flood volumes, under some distributional restrictions. In particular, for rainfall probability distributions exhibiting exponential-like upper tails, it is possible to derive the shape and scale of the probability distribution of flood volumes by hypothesizing the basic properties of such a relationship, under rare and/or extreme conditions. This paper focuses on a parametric mathematical model for the relationship between rare and extreme rainfall and flood volumes under exponentially-tailed distributions. The model is analyzed and fitted to rare and extreme events derived from hydrological simulation of long stochastically-generated synthetic series of rainfall and evaporation for the Indaiá River basin, located in south-central Brazil. The paper also provides a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters in order to better understand flood events under rare and extreme conditions. By working with hydrologically plausible hypothetical events, the modeling approach proved to be a useful way to explore extraordinary rainfall and flood events. The results from this exploratory analysis provide grounds to derive some conclusions regarding the relative positions of the upper tails of the probability distributions of rainfall and flood volumes.

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