Background Current diets are detrimental to both human and planetary health and shifting towards more balanced, predominantly plant-based diets is seen as crucial to improving both. Low fruit and vegetable consumption is itself a major nutritional problem. We aim to better quantify the gap between future fruit and vegetable supply and recommended consumption levels by exploring the interactions between supply and demand in more than 150 countries from 1961 to 2050. Methods In this global analysis, we use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade, which simulates the global agricultural sector, to explore the role of insufficient production of fruits and vegetables and the effects of food waste and public policy in achieving recommended fruit and vegetable consumption. First, we estimate the average historical (1961-2010) and future (2010-50) national consumption levels needed to meet WHO targets (a minimum target of 400 g/person per day or age-specific recommendations of 330-600 g/person per day) using population pyramids; for future consumption, we use projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of global socioeconomic scenarios characterised by varied assumptions on economic and population growth. We then simulate future fruit and vegetable production and demand to 2050 under three such scenarios (SSP1-3) to assess the potential impacts of economic, demographic, and technological change on consumer and producer behaviour. We then explore the potential effects of food waste applying various waste assumptions (0-33% waste). Finally, we apply two policy analysis frameworks (the NOURISHING framework and the Nuffield ladder) to assess the current state of public policy designed to achieve healthy diets. Findings Historically, fruit and vegetable availability has consistently been insufficient to supply recommended consumption levels. By 2015, 81 countries representing 55% of the global population had average fruit and vegetable availability above WHO's minimum target. Under more stringent age-specific recommendations, only 40 countries representing 36% of the global population had adequate availability. Although economic growth will help to increase fruit and vegetable availability in the future, particularly in lower-income countries, this alone will be insufficient. Even under the most optimistic socioeconomic scenarios (excluding food waste), many countries fail to achieve sufficient fruit and vegetable availability to meet even the minimum recommended target. Sub-Saharan Africa is a particular region of concern, with projections suggesting, by 2050, between 0•8 and 1•9 billion people could live in countries with average fruit and vegetable availability below 400 g/person per day. Food waste is a serious obstacle that could erode projected gains. Assuming 33% waste and socioeconomic trends similar to historical patterns, the global average availability in 2050 falls below age-specific recommendations, increasing the number of people living in countries ...

Background Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2) affect global nutrition via effects on agricultural productivity and nutrient content of food crops. We combined these effects with economic projections to estimate net changes in nutrient availability between 2010 and 2050. Methods In this modelling study, we used the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade to project per capita availability of protein, iron, and zinc in 2050. We used estimated changes in productivity of individual agricultural commodities to model effects on production, trade, prices, and consumption under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Two independent sources of data, which used different methodologies to determine the effect of increased atmospheric CO 2 on different key crops, were combined with the modelled food supply results to estimate future nutrient availability. Findings Although technological change, market responses, and the effects of CO 2 fertilisation on yield are projected to increase global availability of dietary protein, iron, and zinc, these increases are moderated by negative effects of climate change affecting productivity and carbon penalties on nutrient content. The carbon nutrient penalty results in decreases in the global availability of dietary protein of 4•1%, iron of 2•8%, and zinc of 2•5% as calculated using one dataset, and decreases in global availability of dietary protein of 2•9%, iron of 3•9%, and zinc of 3•4% using the other dataset. The combined effects of projected increases in atmospheric CO 2 (ie, carbon nutrient penalty, CO 2 fertilisation, and climate effects on productivity) will decrease growth in the global availability of nutrients by 19•5% for protein, 14•4% for iron, and 14•6% for zinc relative to expected technology and market gains by 2050. The many countries that currently have high levels of nutrient deficiency would continue to be disproportionately affected. Interpretation This approach is an improvement in estimating future global food security by simultaneously projecting climate change effects on crop productivity and changes in nutrient content under increased concentrations of CO 2 , which accounts for a much larger effect on nutrient availability than CO 2 fertilisation. Regardless of the scenario used to project future consumption patterns, the net effect of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO 2 will slow progress in decreasing global nutrient deficiencies.

Highlights Increased agricultural investments alone will not achieve SDG2 in Africa; complementary non-ag investments will be needed. Climate change could lead to 16 million more people at risk of hunger compared to a scenario without climate change. Investment in agriculture can more than compensate for the negative effects of climate change. Enhanced agricultural R&D can reduce the prevalence of hunger by 55 million people in Africa. Multi-model ensemble used to more holistically assess cost and benefits of increased agricultural investments in Africa.

Journal articleIFPRI3; CRP2; A Ensuring Sustainable food production; A.1 Global Futures and Strategic Foresight; ISIEPTD; PIMPRCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM

Most business-as-usual scenarios for farming under changing climate regimes project that the agriculture sector will be significantly impacted from increased temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns. Perhaps ironically, agricultural production contributes substantially to the problem with yearly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of about 11% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions, not including land use change. It is partly because of this tension that Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) has attracted interest given its promise to increase agricultural productivity under a changing climate while reducing emissions. Considerable resources have been mobilized to promote CSA globally even though the potential effects of its widespread adoption have not yet been studied. Here we show that a subset of agronomic practices that are often included under the rubric of CSA can contribute to increasing agricultural production under unfavorable climate regimes while contributing to the reduction of GHG. However, for CSA to make a significant impact important investments and coordination are required and its principles must be implemented widely across the entire sector.