1There is mounting evidence of pollinator decline all over the world and consequences in many 2 agricultural areas could be significant. We assessed these consequences by measuring 1) the 3 contribution of insect pollination to the world agricultural output economic value, and 2) the 4 vulnerability of world agriculture in the face of pollinator decline. We used a bioeconomic 5 approach, which integrated the production dependence ratio on pollinators, for the 100 crops 6 used directly for human food worldwide as listed by FAO. The total economic value of 7 pollination worldwide amounted to €153 billion, which represented 9.5% of the value of the 8 world agricultural production used for human food in 2005. In terms of welfare, the consumer 9 surplus loss was estimated between €190 and €310 billion based upon average price 10 elasticities of -1.5 to -0.8, respectively. Vegetables and fruits were the leading crop 11 categories in value of insect pollination with about €50 billion each, followed by edible oil 12 crops, stimulants, nuts and spices. The production value of a ton of the crop categories that do 13 not depend on insect pollination averaged €151 while that of those that are pollinator-14 dependent averaged €761. The vulnerability ratio was calculated for each crop category at the 15 regional and world scales as the ratio between the economic value of pollination and the 16 current total crop value. This ratio varied considerably among crop categories and there was a 17 positive correlation between the rate of vulnerability to pollinators decline of a crop category 18 and its value per production unit. Looking at the capacity to nourish the world population 19 after pollinator loss, the production of 3 crop categories -namely fruits, vegetables, and 20 stimulants-will clearly be below the current consumption level at the world scale and even 21 more so for certain regions like Europe. Yet, although our valuation clearly demonstrates the 22 economic importance of insect pollinators, it cannot be considered as a scenario since it does 23 not take into account the strategic responses of the markets. 24

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Bees are in decline potentially leading to reduced pollination and hence production of insect-pollinated crops in many countries. It is however still unclear whether the consequences of pollinator shortages differ among countries with different environmental and societal conditions. Here, we calculated economic gains attributed to insect (particularly bee) pollination (EVIP) as well as their contribution to the total value of crop production (vulnerability), and analyzed their temporal trends and inter-annual variability from 1991 to 2009 for each country of the European Union (EU). To understand which factors drive country-specific differences in pollinator dependency and stability of insect-dependent crop yields, we further asked whether EVIP, vulnerability and stability of yields were influenced by a country's climate, the number of wild bee species and/or managed honeybee hives per country, and (agricultural) gross domestic product (GDP). Across Europe, crop pollination by insects accounted for 14.6 [±3.3] billion EUR annually (EVIP), which equaled 12 (±0.8)% of the total economic value of annual crop production. Gains strongly varied among countries. Both EVIP and vulnerability increased (and the inter-annual variation of vulnerability decreased) significantly from the colder northern to the warmer Mediterranean EU countries, in parallel with increases in the number of wild bee species. Across years, economic importance of pollination increased in all but three EU countries. Apples were the most important insect-pollinated crop in the EU, accounting for 16% of the EU's total EVIP. Our results show that whereas dependency on insect pollination increased from the colder north to the warmer south, variation in economic gain from insect pollination decreased, indicating that Mediterranean countries had more stable yields of pollinator-dependent crops across years and thus more reliable gains from pollination services. Zusammenfassung Seit einigen Jahren nimmt die Bienendiversität in zahlreichen Ländern ab. Mögliche Folgen dieses Artenrückgangs sind eine Abnahme der Bestäubungsleistung und ein dadurch verringerter Ertrag bei insektenbestäubten Kulturpflanzen. Unklar ist, ob die Bedeutung der Bestäuberleistung und damit deren Auswirkung auf Ernteerträge mit den gesellschaftlichen und/oder Umweltbedingungen eines Landes zusammenhängen. In der hier vorgelegten Studie berechneten wir für die Länder der Europäischen Union (EU) den Wirtschaftsgewinn, welcher durch Bestäubungsleistungen (insbesondere von Bienen) erzielt

This paper describes the building of an integrated simulation tool based on a systems approach, and its contribution to local political discussion of the mitigation of microbiological contamination of the water in a coastal area. Local management schemes view water quality as a high-priority environmental objective. In practice, how far this objective is achieved depends on trade-offs between the costs of improved water treatment facilities and the acceptable impacts of water contamination. An in-the-field experiment in collaboration with local managers was carried out in the Thau lagoon on the French Mediterranean coast during the SPICOSA (Science and Policy Integration for Coastal System Assessment) project, from 2007 through 2011. It consisted of building a modeling platform and an integrated assessment framework for simulating exploratory scenarios. The modeling platform combines a dynamic contamination model, which represents the sources of microbiological contamination, wastewater treatment facilities, and physical mechanisms of lagoon contamination, with a prospective economic model, which estimates the patterns of development of economic activities in the area through a holistic approach. Exploratory scenarios are used to assess the risk of water contamination and the efficiency of management measures, under various assumptions about the evolution of the system. The contamination simulations suggest that the work currently planned by local authorities will be inadequate for preventing increased water pollution, and that additional but fairly inexpensive management measures for maintaining the current level of water quality should be considered. The integrated assessment framework estimates the ecological and socio-economic impacts of the various pollution mitigation policies in the broader context of possible local development patterns. The results illustrate how the systems approach may aid in the design of an applicable water policy based on operational objectives and feasible technical options.