Abstract& Context Projections of species distribution models under future climate are usually based on long-term averages. However, singular extreme drought events presumably contribute to the shaping of distribution limits at the retreating low-elevation xeric limits.& Methods The objectives of this study were to set up a distribution model based on extreme drought events (EDM), which uses sanitary logging information as a proxy of vitality response of beech, and compare it with the results of classical species distribution models (SDMs).& Results Predictions of the EDM for 2025 were in agreement with those of the SDM, but EDM predicted a more serious decline in all regions of Hungary towards the end of the century.& Conclusion These results suggest that the predicted increase in frequency and severity of drought events may further limit the distribution of beech in the future.

© iForest -Biogeosciences and Forestry IntroductionThe relationship of vegetation cover and groundwater resources has drawn considerable scientific attention over the last decades. Many studies have shown that deforestation by logging or of natural origin (forest fire, wind damage) increased the average runoff from the affected area (e.g., Bosch & Hewlett 1982) and afforestation decreased runoff. Similar results were detected in recharge rates and groundwater depth, predominantly in dry regions. In Australia changes of vegetation from woodland to grassland or crops resulted in increases in recharge rates of one to two orders of magnitude (Maitre et al. 1999). The changes were largely due to the altered interception loss and the increased water extraction from the root zone. However, results of paired watershed research agreed only on the direction of the changes, not on their magnitude (Andressian 2004).Comparative water balance studies of forest and low vegetation covers have generally shown higher water use of forest cover (Ladekarl et al. 2005, Nachabe et al. 2005, Schilling 2007. Nachabe et al. (2005) analyzed the groundwater consumption in a shallow water table environment and estimated the annual ET for a forested area (1320 mm) and for a pasture (700 mm) using detailed soil moisture and water table monitoring. At the same time, a few studies have found negligible differences in evapotranspiration of different vegetation covers (e.g., Roberts & Rosier 2005). The latter study found that, although there were seasonal differences, on an annual basis the drainage below broadleaved woodland did not significantly differ from that below a pasture.Due to climate change, air temperature is expected to rise significantly during this century (IPCC 2007). As a direct consequence of warmer temperatures, the hydrological cycle will undergo changes with accompanying alteration in the rates of precipitation and evaporation. In Hungary, summer temperatures is expected to increase by up to four degrees by the end of this century, while precipitation is likely to increase in winter and decrease in summer (Gálos et al. 2007).The impact of climate change on groundwater resources was reviewed lately by Green et al. (2011). Although the uncertainty of predictions for change in groundwater recharge rates and discharge is large (e.g., future climate scenarios and groundwater extraction), numerous studies found that groundwater resources appear to be threatened by future climate change due to increased natural and human water demand.In light of the water balance uncertainties and the increasing pressures on groundwater resources due to future climate change, a comparative water balance study of an oak forest and fallow vegetation plots was initiated in a drought-threatened lowland environment in north-eastern Hungary. Water balance components were estimated by the Hydrus 1-D numerical model (Simunek et al. 2005), calibrated on measured soil moisture and groundwater levels.Our research questions were the following: (1) what is the m...

•Key message We developed a dataset of the potential distribution of seven ecologically and economically important tree species of Europe in terms of their climatic suitability with an ensemble approach while accounting for uncertainty due to model algorithms. The dataset was documented following the ODMAP protocol to ensure reproducibility. Our maps are input data in a decision support tool “SusSelect” which predicts the vulnerability of forest trees in climate change and recommends adapted planting material. Dataset access is at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3686918. Associated metadata are available at https://metadata-afs.nancy.inra.fr/geonetwork/srv/fre/catalog.search#/metadata/fe79a36d-6db8-4a87-8a9f-c72a572b87e8.

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