Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low-income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one-third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock-based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self-sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform.

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Goats are important contributors to both food and financial security of the resource poor, particularly in marginal environments such as those in the Mediterranean region. To fully understand the feasibility and potential consequences of any intensification or husbandry changes that could contribute to higher outputs, it is important to have a thorough prior understanding of the functional dynamics of these systems. Here the current performance of ten goat holdings in the northern region of Morocco, classified as either commercial milk producers, commercial cheese producers or non-commercial dairy producers, was recorded, based on the Food and Agricultural Organisation and International Centre for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies (FAO-CIHEAM) technical and economic indicators, to assess whether intensification of dairy production was financially viable. Fecundity and prolificacy rates were comparatively lower than those achieved by many European Mediterranean herds. Both kid and doe mortality were higher on commercial dairy holdings, where dairy sales provided an additional, rather than alternative, source of income to goat sales. Despite this, due to significantly higher expenditure on supplementary feed, gross margin per doe did not differ significantly between holding types. With the exception of indigenous Greek herds, all European Mediterranean herds outperform those of northern Morocco. The study suggests that a low level of supplementary feeding is constraining goat dairy production in northern Morocco, and that the current high cost and limited availability of additional supplementary feed restricts the financial viability of intensification. Alternative feeding strategies within a participatory approach that might ameliorate these problems, and value chain constraints, are discussed.

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Context Strategies for achieving greater ruminant livestock productivity are essential to meet the food demands of growing populations, but sustainable changes are difficult to identify given the inherent complexity of such systems. Systems models can address this issue by allowing the impact of potential changes to be explored. Aims To develop a holistic systems model for goat production in an extensive Mediterranean environment which could allow changes in key management factors influencing the system to be investigated. Methods Initially, a conceptual comprehensive stock-and-flow model of a representative Mediterranean goat production system was constructed. This was used to identify informative indicators that would represent the overall technical and economic performance of the system. Sub-models were then assembled to build the full systems model. The model was parameterised with data collected over 3 years for goat holdings in northern Morocco. Scenario analysis techniques are used to explore the strategies that optimise performance under climate and feed price challenges. Key results Meat production is particularly important during periods of drought when increased meat yields can counteract the expected reduction in milk yields, to protect human food security, prevent excessive rangeland degradation and preserve natural nutritional resources. Feed price shocks during drought can have significant negative impacts on the system and zero feed input is shown to be a more sustainable strategy than reliance on high price feed during drought. Any alternative feed sources need to have a high forage component to reduce grazing periods significantly and promote rangeland preservation. Implications A diverse management strategy with a mixed meat and dairy semi-intensive production is more stable than specialised dairy systems and allows goat production and financial viability of intensification to be maintained under climatic stress; maintaining meat production was necessary to optimise performance. Conclusions The model allows improved insight into management strategies which could optimise animal husbandry performance in goat subsistence systems. However, the work also demonstrates the difficulty of constructing a truly holistic model since, to be practical, such constructs must necessarily be bounded; parameter selection and the limits to the boundaries imposed are inevitably critical.