No abstract

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms and the toxins they produce are a global water-quality problem. Monitoring and prediction tools are needed to quickly predict cyanotoxin action-level exceedances in recreational and drinking waters used by the public. To address this need, data were collected at eight locations in Ohio, USA, to identify factors significantly related to observed concentrations of microcystins (a freshwater cyanotoxin) that could be used in two types of sitespecific regression models. Real-time models include easily or continuously-measured factors that do not require that a sample be collected; comprehensive models use a combination of discrete sample-based measurements and real-time factors. The study sites included two recreational sites and six water treatment plant sites. Real-time models commonly included variables such as phycocyanin, pH, specific conductance, and streamflow or gage height. Many real-time factors were averages over time periods antecedent to the time the microcystin sample was collected, including waterquality data compiled from continuous monitors. Comprehensive models were useful at some sites with lagged variables for cyanobacterial toxin genes, dissolved nutrients, and (or) nitrogen to phosphorus ratios. Because models can be used for management decisions, important measures of model performance were sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of estimates above or below the microcystin concentration threshold standard or action level. Sensitivity is how well the predictive tool correctly predicts exceedance of a threshold, an important measure for water-resource managers. Sensitivities > 90% at four Lake Erie water treatment plants indicated that models with continuous monitor data were especially promising. The planned next steps are to collect more data to build larger site-specific datasets and validate models before they can be used for management decisions.

Sources of E. coli at U.S. beaches are often unknown. Determining the spatial distribution of E. coli and identifying factors that can affect concentrations may provide insight into the sources of fecal contamination. This approach was used to investigate a popular bathing beach in northwest Ohio-Maumee Bay State Park (MBSP). In 2003 synoptic studies, water and bed-sediment samples were collected and analyzed for E. coli at 24 sites within Maumee Bay, a nearby shipping channel, a major tributary to the bay (Maumee River), and nearshore areas at the mouths of drainage ditches. In 2004, samples were collected at 22 sites identified as "hot spots" of fecal contamination during 2003. Daily samples for E. coli were collected at MBSP as part of the Ohio Bathing Beach Monitoring Program. Highest E. coli concentrations were found at sites in the Maumee River, the shipping channel, and in or at the mouth of some drainage ditches. These high values were found in bed sediments underlying the deepest waters, which may act as an E. coli sink. Low E. coli concentrations at sites remote to MBSP indicated that sources from these areas were not important contributors of E. coli. Temperature changes in discharge from a local powerplant did not cause an increase in E. coli concentrations. A ditch that discharges 75 m east of the bathing beach was shown to be a principal source of E. coli.

Water samples were collected from Maumee Bay State Park Lakeside Beach, Oregon, Ohio, during the 2012 recreational season and analyzed for selected cyanobacteria gene sequences by DNA-based quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) and RNA-based quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Results from the four DNA assays (for quantifying total cyanobacteria, total Microcystis, and Microcystis and Planktothrix strains that possess the microcystin synthetase E (mcyE) gene) and two RNA assays (for quantifying Microcystis and Planktothrix genera that are expressing the microcystin synthetase E (mcyE) gene) were compared to microcystin concentration results determined by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Concentrations of the target in replicate analyses were log 10 transformed. The average value of differences in log 10 concentrations for the replicates that had at least one detection were found to range from 0.05 to >0.37 copy per 100 milliliters (copy/100 mL) for DNA-based methods and from >0.04 to >0.17 copy/100 mL for RNA-based methods. RNA has a shorter half-life than DNA; consequently, a 24-hour holding-time study was done to determine the effects of holding time on RNA concentrations. Holding-time comparisons for the RNA-based Microcystis toxin mcyE assay showed reductions in the number of copies per 100 milliliters over 24 hours. The log difference between time 2 hours and time 24 hours was >0.37 copy/100 mL, which was higher than the analytical variability (log difference of >0.17 copy/100 mL). Spearman's correlation analysis indicated that microcystin toxin concentrations were moderately to highly related to DNA-based assay results for total cyanobacteria (rho=0.69), total Microcystis (rho=0.74), and Microcystis strains that possess the mcyE gene (rho=0.81). Microcystin toxin concentrations were strongly related with RNA-based assay results for Microcystis mcyE gene expression (rho=0.95). Correlation analysis could not be done for Planktothrix mcyE gene expression because of too few detections.