Objectives: Develop and implement a machine learning algorithm to predict severe sepsis and septic shock and evaluate the impact on clinical practice and patient outcomes. Design: Retrospective cohort for algorithm derivation and validation, pre-post impact evaluation. Setting: Tertiary teaching hospital system in Philadelphia, PA. Patients: All non-ICU admissions; algorithm derivation July 2011 to June 2014 (n = 162,212); algorithm validation October to December 2015 (n = 10,448); silent versus alert comparison January 2016 to February 2017 (silent n = 22,280; alert n = 32,184). Interventions: A random-forest classifier, derived and validated using electronic health record data, was deployed both silently and later with an alert to notify clinical teams of sepsis prediction. Measurement and Main Result: Patients identified for training the algorithm were required to have International Classification of Diseases, 9th Edition codes for severe sepsis or septic shock and a positive blood culture during their hospital encounter with either a lactate greater than 2.2 mmol/L or a systolic blood pressure less than 90 mm Hg. The algorithm demonstrated a sensitivity of 26% and specificity of 98%, with a positive predictive value of 29% and positive likelihood ratio of 13. The alert resulted in a small statistically significant increase in lactate testing and IV fluid administration. There was no significant difference in mortality, discharge disposition, or transfer to ICU, although there was a reduction in time-to-ICU transfer. Conclusions: Our machine learning algorithm can predict, with low sensitivity but high specificity, the impending occurrence of severe sepsis and septic shock. Algorithm-generated predictive alerts modestly impacted clinical measures. Next steps include describing clinical perception of this tool and optimizing algorithm design and delivery.

Objective: To assess clinician perceptions of a machine learning–based early warning system to predict severe sepsis and septic shock (Early Warning System 2.0). Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: Tertiary teaching hospital in Philadelphia, PA. Patients: Non-ICU admissions November–December 2016. Interventions: During a 6-week study period conducted 5 months after Early Warning System 2.0 alert implementation, nurses and providers were surveyed twice about their perceptions of the alert’s helpfulness and impact on care, first within 6 hours of the alert, and again 48 hours after the alert. Measurements and Main Results: For the 362 alerts triggered, 180 nurses (50% response rate) and 107 providers (30% response rate) completed the first survey. Of these, 43 nurses (24% response rate) and 44 providers (41% response rate) completed the second survey. Few (24% nurses, 13% providers) identified new clinical findings after responding to the alert. Perceptions of the presence of sepsis at the time of alert were discrepant between nurses (13%) and providers (40%). The majority of clinicians reported no change in perception of the patient’s risk for sepsis (55% nurses, 62% providers). A third of nurses (30%) but few providers (9%) reported the alert changed management. Almost half of nurses (42%) but less than a fifth of providers (16%) found the alert helpful at 6 hours. Conclusions: In general, clinical perceptions of Early Warning System 2.0 were poor. Nurses and providers differed in their perceptions of sepsis and alert benefits. These findings highlight the challenges of achieving acceptance of predictive and machine learning–based sepsis alerts.

Analyzing the quality of classroom talk is central to educational research and improvement efforts. In particular, the presence of authentic teacher questions, where answers are not predetermined by the teacher, helps constitute and serves as a marker of productive classroom discourse. Further, authentic questions can be cultivated to improve teaching effectiveness and consequently student achievement. Unfortunately, current methods to measure question authenticity do not scale because they rely on human observations or coding of teacher discourse. To address this challenge, we set out to use automatic speech recognition, natural language processing, and machine learning to train computers to detect authentic questions in real-world classrooms automatically. Our methods were iteratively refined using classroom audio and human-coded observational data from two sources: (a) a large archival database of text transcripts of 451 observations from 112 classrooms; and (b) a newly collected sample of 132 high-quality audio recordings from 27 classrooms, obtained under technical constraints that anticipate large-scale automated data collection and analysis. Correlations between human-coded and computer-coded authenticity at the classroom level were sufficiently high (r = .602 for archival transcripts and .687 for audio recordings) to provide a valuable complement to human coding in research efforts.

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