Due to the weak nature of agricultural production, governments usually adopt supportive policies to protect food security. To discern the growth of agriculture from 2001 to 2018 under China’s agricultural support policies, we use the nonlinear MS(M)-AR(p) model to distinguish China’s agricultural economic cycle into three growth regimes—rapid, medium, and low—and analyze the probability of shifts and maintenance among the different regimes. We further calculated the average duration of each regime. Moreover, we calculated the growth regime transfers for specific times. In this study, we find that China’s agricultural economy has maintained a relatively consistent growth trend with the support of China’s proactive agricultural policies. However, China’s agricultural economy tends to maintain a low-growth status in the long-term. Finally, we make policy recommendations for agricultural development based on our findings that continue existing agricultural policies and strengthen support for agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry.

This study examines options’ market behavior before analysts’ initiations. We find abnormal trading activity in the options market several days prior to the release of analysts’ initiations. Informed traders recognize the content and timing of the initial recommendations. We determine that informed trading is attributed to information leakage rather than savvy investors’ stock‐picking ability. We also find a significant information transmission from the options market to the underlying equity market around the event. Our results are consistent with the tipping hypothesis and confirm the informational role of equity options.

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