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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to review and analyse Vision 2023: the Turkish National Technology Foresight project. The paper aims to review the process of conducting the project, how it was implemented afterwards and how it compares to other national technology foresight projectsDesign/methodology/approachThrough a literature search, a process framework was conducted. The analysis was then conducted in four phases. First a process review, second a comparative review, third content review and finally a post project review. Expert interviews and site visits to Turkish State Planning Organization and TUBITAK (Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey) helped the authors to collect the data on Vision 2023 including how it was established, which areas were involved and what the recommendations were. Finally an expert panel was organized as part of a recent Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology. This included experts involved in the project as well as leading researchers who have been analyzing this project. This panel helped to validate the results.FindingsProcesses used in the Turkish project were similar to the other national projects, however lack of political ownership and change in leadership had been blocking the recommendations coming out of this project from being implemented. A second effort is required to modify the results of the first one and to establish political ownership and leadership. Several other national projects had multiple rounds before solid actions were taken. Industry needs to be a part of the effort as the panelists indicated that several key corporations were missing in the first project.Practical implicationsThe project provides comparative details on running national technology foresight projects. This should be useful for those responsible for planning similar projects.Original/valueThe paper reviews the project implementation process and what happened after the implementation providing feedback on what should have been done or should be done in similar foresight projects.

This research develops a systematic approach for policy makers to strategically define the national technology policy for emerging technologies. In this approach, a hierarchical decision model is built and qualified expert opinions are used as measurements. There are four levels in the hierarchy: mission, objectives, technological goals, and research strategies. Three panels are formed based on their background and expertise in order to minimize and balance any possible biases among the members. The objectives, technological goals, and research strategies are evaluated and prioritized, according to their contribution to the country's mission, by quantifying the experts' judgments. This research also demonstrates several approaches for the validation of results. Inconsistency measure, intraclass correlation coefficient, and statistical test for the reliability of the experts and group agreement are used for that purpose. Finally, HDM sensitivity analysis is brought in to study the robustness of the rankings, especially at the technology level that may be caused by potential changes in the national strategic direction.

This paper presents on-going research on developing a systematic process to help national decision makers define the R&D strategy and policy of emerging technologies. To demonstrate the process, nanotechnology for supporting the development of the food and agriculture sector in Thailand will be applied. In the research, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used as the main methodology. Then, a four-level hierarchical decision model (HDM) composed of the country's mission, objectives, technological goals, and research strategies is built. All elements in each decision level are developed based on the literature search and verified by experts.