Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).
Respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) appeared in China during December 2019. Attempting to contain infection, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January and implemented a national emergency response. Here we evaluate the spread and control of the epidemic based on a unique synthesis of data including case reports, human movement and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown slowed the dispersal of infection to other cities by an estimated 2.91 days (95%CI: 2.54-3.29), delaying epidemic growth elsewhere in China. Other cities that implemented control measures pre-emptively reported 33.3% (11.1-44.4%) fewer cases in the first week of their outbreaks (13.0; 7.1-18.8) compared with cities that started control later (20.6; 14.5-26.8). Among interventions investigated here, the most effective were suspending intra-city public transport, closing entertainment venues and banning public gatherings. The national emergency response delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic and, by 19 February (day 50), had averted hundreds of thousands of cases across China.
The survival or clearance of the avian influenza virus (AIV) of subtype H7N2 in its chicken host was evaluated using experimentally infected specific pathogen free (SPF) chickens of different age groups. Birds of different ages were successfully infected with infectious doses ranging between 10(4.7) and 10(5.7) ELD50 per bird. In infected birds, the infective virus was undetectable usually by the third week following exposure. The infectivity or inactivation time of the H7N2 AIV in various environmental conditions was studied using chicken manure, heat, ethanol, pH, and disinfectants. The H7N2 AIV was effectively inactivated by field chicken manure in less than a week at an ambient temperature of 15-20 degrees C. At a pH 2, heating at 56 degrees C, and exposure to 70% ethanol or a specific disinfectant, the AIV infectivity was destroyed in less than 30 min.
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