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T HE vulnerability of farm ineome to fluetuations in business aetivity and priees is notorious. In high weather-risk areas, the effeets of extreme variability of weather are super-imposed upon the uneertainties and erratie performances of our national eeonomy. The Great Plains are sueh a high-risk farming area par exeellenee, and I shall draw some illustrative material from that area.John Wesley Powell, in his famous "Report on the Lands of the A¡ l~gion of the United States" (1878), warned against the folly of allowing this area to be homesteaded. He visualized the sett]ement of most of the Plains in "pasturage farms" of not ]ess than ~,560 acres in size. He eonsidered irrigation the on]y depend-ab|e basis for arable farming in this area. 2During the succession of ten drought and pest years in the '30's ~r Powell's report was brought to light again. People began to wonder; perhaps this sett|ement of the Great P|ains was rea|ly al| a big mistake. Then, during the '40's, years of exeeptiona||y good weather and prices have given Great Plains farmers ah unprecedented prosperity. Many debts have been paid off, farms enlarged, houses modernized. Yet, farmers ask themselves: How long will it ]ast? Cou]d we survive another drought like the '30's? Sueh a long and severe drought might not reeur again during this century; or it might start next year. It might be even |onger and more severe; or it might be shorter and |ess devastating. Or the weather might, for a spel| of years, hover more e|ose|y around some ]ong-time average. ~Vho knows P Fu~ament~ly, Mth respect to the time dimension re]evant to planning and decision-ma~ng by individua|s and groups, the weather factor in this region represents ah uncertainty of a kind that seemz lo preclude actuarial determination of annual budgetable costsx Abstract of a paper presented at

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