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This study develops a hydro-economic model for the coastal aquifer Mahdia Ksour Essef in Tunisia in order to analyze how external shocks (climate change, energy price increase) and management policies can affect groundwater sustainability during the coming decades. Twenty-one scenarios covering three management policies (free market, partial cooperation, and full cooperation policy) under various potential climate and economic changes are evaluated. The results of scenario simulations show the potential impact of energy soaring prices and climate change on the aquifer’s water table level, groundwater extractions, cropland areas, and farmers’ benefits under each policy option in the future. They also show that the best scenario to address the effects of climate change would need to take into account environmental externalities and efficient energy prices. The findings of this study are very important in the context of climate change and uncertain global energy markets and provide feasible alternatives to preserve the regional economy and aquifer sustainability.

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