Scrub typhus has struck back, albeit with renewed vigour, impacting areas with previously known endemicity as also impressing newer expanses. It is not surprising, therefore, that Scrub typhus has emerged as a leading cause of public health concern globally as well as in India, but are we ready to take on the challenge? Over the last decade, there has been a global increase in the number of outbreaks of Scrub typhus, be it the military occupied areas or the civil population at large. The innumerable outbreaks of Scrub typhus, although disconcerting, have nonetheless contributed phenomenally towards better understanding of the dynamics of scrub typhus. There have been significant contributions to awareness of the disease amongst medical professionals, scrub typhus as a cause of Acute Undifferentiated Febrile Illness (AUFI) and newer clinical manifestation e Acute Encephalitis Syndrome (AES), availability and advances in diagnostics and management, man-vector-pathogen interactions, new records of Leptotrombidium species, newer vectors and Orientia species.Antigenic diversity and the varied clinical presentation of scrub typhus, absence of scrub typhus surveillance system and a lack of political will to recognize the disease as one of the important reemerging public health problem are areas seeking concerted deliberations and actions so that the challenges posed by scrub typhus can be addressed.
Novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread from China to other parts of the world. Knowledge of incubation period and reproduction number is important in controlling any epidemic. The distribution of these parameters helps estimate the epidemic size and transmission potential of the disease. We estimated the incubation period and reproduction number of COVID-19 for India utilizing data reported by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, and data in public domain. The mean incubation period seems to be larger at 6.93 (standard deviation = ±5.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.11-7.75), and 95th percentile estimate for best fit normal distribution is 17.8 days. Weibull distribution, the best fit for the reproduction number estimated pre lockdown reproduction number as 2.6 (95% CI = 2.34-2.86) and post lockdown reduced to 1.57 (95% CI = 1.3-1.84) implying effectiveness of the epidemic response strategies. The herd immunity is estimated between 36% and 61% for R0 of 1.57 and 2.6, respectively.
Novel coronavirus (COVID 19) rapidly spread from China to other parts of the world. Knowledge of incubation period and reproduction number is important in controlling any epidemic. The distribution of these parameters helps estimate the epidemic size and transmission potential of the disease. We estimated incubation period and reproduction number of COVID 19 for India utilizing data reported by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), Government of India (GOI) and data in public domain. The mean incubation period seems to be larger at 6.93 (SD=5.87, 95% CI: 6.11, 7.75). and 95th percentile estimate for best fit normal distribution is 17.8 days. Weibull distribution, the best fit for the reproduction number estimated pre lockdown reproduction number as 2.6 (95% CI=2.34, 2.86) and post lockdown reduced to 1.57 (95% CI=1.3 , 1.84) implying effectiveness of the epidemic response strategies. The herd immunity is estimated between 36 to 61% for R0 of 1.57 and 2.6 respectively.
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