Climate change is predicted to cause changes in species distributions and several studies report margin range shifts in some species. However, the reported changes rarely concern a species' entire distribution and are not always linked to climate change. Here, we demonstrate strong north-eastwards shifts in the centres of gravity of the entire wintering range of three common waterbird species along the North-West Europe flyway during the past three decades. These shifts correlate with an increase of 3.8 °C in early winter temperature in the north-eastern part of the wintering areas, where bird abundance increased exponentially, corresponding with decreases in abundance at the south-western margin of the wintering ranges. This confirms the need to re-evaluate conservation site safeguard networks and associated biodiversity monitoring along the flyway, as new important wintering areas are established further north and east, and highlights the general urgency of conservation planning in a changing world. Range shifts in wintering waterbirds may also affect hunting pressure, which may alter bag sizes and lead to population-level consequences.

Aim Species are responding to climate change by changing their distributions, creating debate about the effectiveness of existing networks of protected areas. As a contribution to this debate, we assess whether regional winter abundances and distribution of the Smew Mergellus albellus, a migratory waterbird species listed on Annex I (EU Birds Directive) that overwinters exclusively in European wetlands, changed during 1990–2011, the role of global warming in driving distributional changes and the effectiveness of the network of Special Protection Areas (SPAs, EU Birds Directive) in the context of climate change. Location Europe. Methods We used site‐specific counts (6,883 sites) from 16 countries covering the entire flyway to estimate annual abundance indices and trends at country, region (north‐eastern, central and south‐western) and flyway scales, inside and outside SPAs. We fitted autoregressive models to assess the effect of winter temperature on the annual abundance indices whilst accounting for autocorrelation. Results The Smew wintering distribution shifted north‐eastwards in Europe in accordance with the predictions of global warming, with increasing numbers in the north‐eastern region and declines in the central region. Trends in wintering numbers were more positive in SPAs on the north‐eastern and south‐western part of the flyway. However, a large proportion of the wintering population remains unprotected in north‐eastern areas outside of the existing SPA network. Main conclusions SPAs accommodated climate‐driven abundance changes in the north‐eastern region of the wintering distribution by supporting increasing numbers of Smew in traditional and newly colonized areas. However, we highlight gaps in the current network, suggesting that urgent policy responses are needed. Given rapid changes in species distributions, we urge regular national and international assessments of the adequacy of the EU Natura 2000 network to ensure coherence in site‐safeguard networks for this and other species.

SummaryThe Yellow Sea region is of high global importance for waterbird populations, but recent systematic bird count data enabling identification of the most important sites are relatively sparse for some areas. Surveys of waterbirds at three sites on the coast of southern Jiangsu Province, China, in 2014 and 2015 produced peak counts of international importance for 24 species, including seven globally threatened and six Near Threatened species. The area is of particular global importance for the ‘Critically Endangered’ Spoon-billed Sandpiper Calidris pygmaea (peak count across all three study sites: 62 in spring [2015] and 225 in autumn [2014] and ‘Endangered’ Spotted Greenshank Tringa guttifer (peak count across all three study sites: 210 in spring [2014] and 1,110 in autumn [2015]). The southern Jiangsu coast is therefore currently the most important migratory stopover area in the world, in both spring and autumn, for both species. Several serious and acute threats to waterbirds were recorded at these study sites. Paramount is the threat of large-scale land claim which would completely destroy intertidal mudflats of critical importance to waterbirds. Degradation of intertidal mudflat habitats through the spread of invasive Spartina, and mortality of waterbirds by entrapment in nets or deliberate poisoning are also real and present serious threats here. Collisions with, and displacement by, wind turbines and other structures, and industrial chemical pollution may represent additional potential threats. We recommend the rapid establishment of effective protected areas for waterbirds in the study area, maintaining large areas of open intertidal mudflat, and the urgent removal of all serious threats currently faced by waterbirds here.

Summary1. Migratory geese are dominant terrestrial herbivores in Arctic and north temperate regions. They are important quarry species and also conflict with agricultural interests through winter foraging. We investigated the dynamics of the populations of greylag Anser anser and pink-footed Anser brachyrhynchus geese that breed in Iceland and winter in Britain. 2. We estimated seasonal and annual survival of both populations based on colourringing programmes in Iceland 1996-2000 and in Britain since 1987. We used these results, along with hunting bag statistics from Iceland, in a set of models to assess the British autumn counts as well as the impact of hunting. 3. After a rapid increase, the pink-footed goose counts stabilized after 1992 at around 230 000. The greylag goose counts increased slowly to c . 100 000 around 1990 and then declined to around 80 000. Both populations showed stable counts from 1996 to 2000, when the proportion of young recorded in autumn was 17·5% for greylag geese and 18·2% for pink-footed geese. Hunting bag statistics have been compiled since 1995 in Iceland; during 1996-2000, means of 36 608 greylag geese and 13 991 pink-footed geese were reported shot annually. 4. Mean annual adult and first-year survival estimates were 0·727 and 0·472 for greylag geese, and 0·814 and 0·394 for pink-footed geese. The lower survival of juvenile pinkfooted geese was probably due to higher natural mortality, whereas the generally lower survival of greylag geese could be explained by higher hunting pressure. 5. Simple modelling showed that the results from autumn surveys and bag statistics were incompatible for greylag geese. For the population to remain stable with the estimated survival rate, the proportion of juveniles in autumn must be 30%. We suggest that problems in separating juveniles from adults in October-November caused the lower proportion of juveniles recorded. Also, the number of greylag geese counted in autumn and the number reported shot in Iceland cannot both be correct; the bag statistics imply a population twice as large as the number counted. Large numbers of greylag geese may winter in areas not covered by the autumn census, but overreporting of the hunting bag may also have occurred. No such discrepancies were found for pink-footed geese. 6. Synthesis and applications . We recommend that a stratified sampling programme be established for estimating the size and age composition of both goose species. The

Animal populations are exposed to large-scale anthropogenic impact from e.g. climate change, habitat alteration and supplemental stocking. All of these may affect body condition in wintering dabbling ducks, which in turn may affect an individual's survival and reproductive success. The aim of this study was to assess whether there have been morphometric changes in Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and Teal (Anas crecca) over the last 30 years at a major wintering site. Body mass and condition increased from the 1950s-1960s to the 2000s in both species. The increase in body mass amounted to as much as 11.7%, with no corresponding change in body size. Improved body condition was maintained from early to mid-winter, but then converged with historical values for late winter. Our interpretation is that increasingly benign ambient winter conditions permit ducks to maintain better energetic ''safety margins'' throughout winter, and that converging spring departure values may be related to evolutionary flight energetic optima. The observed changes are consistent with large-scale climate amelioration and local/regional habitat improvement (both anthropogenic).