No abstract

[1] The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. We demonstrate a parametric model of ozone hole area that is based upon a new algorithm for estimating chlorine and bromine levels over Antarctica and late spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This model explains 95% of the ozone hole area's variance. We then use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur around 2068 and the area will very slowly decline between 2001 and 2017. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until about 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole.

Data taken in aircraft transects of emissions plumes from rural U.S. coal-fired power plants were used to confirm and quantify the nonlinear dependence of tropospheric ozone formation on plume NO(x) (NO plus NO(2)) concentration, which is determined by plant NO(x) emission rate and atmospheric dispersion. The ambient availability of reactive volatile organic compounds, principally biogenic isoprene, was also found to modulate ozone production rate and yield in these rural plumes. Differences of a factor of 2 or greater in plume ozone formation rates and yields as a function of NO(x) and volatile organic compound concentrations were consistently observed. These large differences suggest that consideration of power plant NO(x) emission rates and geographic locations in current and future U.S. ozone control strategies could substantially enhance the efficacy of NO(x) reductions from these sources.

Supplemental information Given that air samples stored in metal have been known to sometimes have in-growth of H 2 when stored for significant periods of time, there was concern over the stability of H 2 in the canisters from the Whole Air Sampler. To investigate for this possibility, we analyzed five canister/flask sample pairs that had aliquots separated into evacuated glass flasks 14 to 15 months after initial sampling and ~ 6 months prior to isotopic analysis. Under these

The concentrations of the hydrogen radicals OH and HO2 in the middle and upper troposphere were measured simultaneously with those of NO, O3, CO, H2O, CH4, non-methane hydrocarbons, and with the ultraviolet and visible radiation field. The data allow a direct examination of the processes that produce O3 in this region of the atmosphere. Comparison of the measured concentrations of OH and HO2 with calculations based on their production from water vapor, ozone, and methane demonstrate that these sources are insufficient to explain the observed radical concentrations in the upper troposphere. The photolysis of carbonyl and peroxide compounds transported to this region from the lower troposphere may provide the source of HOx required to sustain the measured abundances of these radical species. The mechanism by which NO affects the production of O3 is also illustrated by the measurements. In the upper tropospheric air masses sampled, the production rate for ozone (determined from the measured concentrations of HO2 and NO) is calculated to be about 1 part per billion by volume each day. This production rate is faster than previously thought and implies that anthropogenic activities that add NO to the upper troposphere, such as biomass burning and aviation, will lead to production of more O3 than expected.