Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation -and associated ecosystem consequences -have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date.

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Endophytic fungi are plant symbionts living asymptomatically within plant tissues. Neotyphodium spp., which are asexual vertically transmitted systemic fungal endophytes of cool-season grasses, are predicted to be plant mutualists. These endophytes increase host plant resistance to environmental stresses and/or increase the production of alkaloid-based herbivore deterrents. The ubiquity of this defense mutualism is unclear, and a variety of alternative mechanisms may explain the observed variation in infection rates, levels of deterrence, and the maintenance of asexual endophytes in grass populations. We found that grass-endophyte interactions are variable and ordered along an herbivory gradient in an undisturbed subarctic alpine ecosystem. Native grass populations in grazed sites had significantly greater frequency of Neotyphodium infection compared to ungrazed sites. Tillers from grazed sites had significantly higher hyphal densities compared to ungrazed sites. The ability of grass-Neotyphodium constituents to deter vertebrate herbivory in natural systems is thought to be rare. In grazed meadows, we showed that endophyte infection resulted in the deterrence of grazing by native vertebrate herbivores. However, the same herbivores did not distinguish between infected and uninfected grass harvested from ungrazed areas. These results demonstrate that the relationship between vertically transmitted endophytes and grasses in the alpine tundra vary greatly within populations. This may be based in part on defense mutualism and is consistent, under varying levels of herbivory, with the predictions of optimal defense theory.

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.