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Glaciers and snowpacks influence streamflow by altering the volume and timing of discharge. Without reliable data on baseline snow and ice volumes, properties and behaviour, initializing hydrological models for climate impact assessment is challenging. Two contrasting HySIM model builds were calibrated and validated against observed discharge data (2000–2008) assuming that snowmelt of the baseline permanent snowpack reserves in the high-elevation sub-catchment are either constrained (snowmelt is limited to the seasonal snow accumulation) or unconstrained (snowmelt is only energy-limited). We then applied both models within a scenario-neutral framework to develop impact response surface of hydrological response to future changes in annual temperature and precipitation. Both models had similar baseline model performance (NSE of 0.69–0.70 in calibration and 0.64–0.66 in validation), but the impact response surfaces differ in the magnitude and (for some combinations) direction of model response to climate change at low (Q10) and high (Q90) daily flows. The implications of historical data inadequacies in snowpack characterization for assessing the impacts of climate change and the associated timing of hydrological tipping points are discussed.

Erosional failure of granular dams by an overtopping body of water is investigated using a depth-averaged morphodynamic model. The transport of sediment by the flow assumes the sediment flux to remain in equilibrium with the local bed shear stress. Accordingly, the shallow-water hydrodynamic equations are coupled with the Exner equation for mass conservation of the sediment. The system of equations is solved using a fully coupled well-balanced finite volume method, second-order accurate in time and space. The effect of the steep bed slope of a dam face is incorporated into both the hydrodynamics and sediment transport equations, leading to improved predictions. Comparison with results obtained from nonequilibrium sediment transport models indicates that such models perform poorly while predicting the bed evolution near the toe of an eroding dam. Observations from experimental studies demonstrate that the amount of sediment entrained by the flow is not significant, except during the initial moments of failure. This suggests that the vertical exchange of mass between the bed and the flow layer, as assumed by the nonequilibrium models, may not be completely valid during the failure. The equilibrium model results, reproducing the key flow features of the overtopping failure process, are validated by experimental measurements. The study provides fresh insights into the sediment transport processes associated with the erosion of a granular dam by overtopping, establishes the appropriateness of the equilibrium approach for its numerical modeling, and proposes a well-balanced second-order accurate solution technique for solving the resulting coupled equations of flow and sediment transport.

<p>Granular slides can be defined as gravity-driven rapid movements of granular particle assemblies mixed with air and often also water. This ubiquitous phenomenon is not only observed in industrial applications such as hoppers, blenders and rotating drums, but also in natural contexts in the form of landslides, rockslides and avalanches. These granular slides in nature may cause devastation and human losses in their run-out path and indirect effects such as landslide-tsunamis, landslide dams and glacial lake outburst floods. The investigation of granular slides in nature is challenging due to the dangers in accessing the landslide locations in a timely manner and the challenges in predicting when and where they occur. Here, we use well defined and controlled three-dimensional (3D) laboratory experiments, building up on own (Kesseler et al., 2020*) and other studies, which were commonly limited to two dimensions (2D). The primary aim of the current study is to extend the scale effects investigation of Kesseler et al. (2020) to 3D and to provide new physical insight into 3D granular slides.</p><p> </p><p>The experimental setup from Kesseler et al. (2020) has been upgraded from 2D to 3D by extending the side of the ramp and runout zone. The upgraded versatile 3 m long and 1.5 m wide ramp transitions via a curved section into a 3 m long and 2 m wide runout area. The measurement system, consisting of cameras recording the slide evolution and for general observations and a photogrammetry system to investigate the slide deposit shape including the runout, has been complemented with two laser distance sensors measuring the slide thickness along its centreline at two distinct positions during slide propagation.</p><p> </p><p>In this initial study, we explore two different slide volume limits and, surprisingly, found a negative correlation between the slide volume and runout distance. Moreover, we identified a positive correlation between the slide thickness and slide volume. A positive correlation has also been identified between the maximum deposit height and the initial slide volume. Further, the good test repeatability is demonstrated with a detailed quantification and presentation of the characteristic variation plot at different time instances, involving the slide centroid and front velocities, the maximum slide thickness, the slide side expansion ratio and the locations of the slide deposit front- and backlines.</p><p> </p><p>These findings may ultimately contribute to landslide and avalanche hazard assessments by providing an efficient and improved prediction of the slide kinematics, the slide evolution and the slide deposition features such as the runout distance. Moreover, once all experiments are conducted at different scales, we hope to be able to quantify and understand scale effects of granular slides and to improve the upscaling procedure from laboratory scale to nature.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>*Kesseler, M., Heller, V., Turnbull, B. (2020) Grain Reynolds number scale effects in dry granular slides. <em>Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface</em> 125(1):1-19.</p><p> </p>