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Global warming is predicted to cause distributional changes in organisms whose geographic ranges are controlled by temperature. We report a recent latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of the pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pityocampa, whose larvae build silk nests and feed on pine foliage in the winter. In north‐central France (Paris Basin), its range boundary has shifted by 87 km northwards between 1972 and 2004; in northern Italy (Alps), an altitudinal shift of 110–230 m upwards occurred between 1975 and 2004. By experimentally linking winter temperature, feeding activity, and survival of T. pityocampa larvae, we attribute the expansions to increased winter survival due to a warming trend over the past three decades. In the laboratory we determined the minimum nest and night air temperatures required for larval feeding and developed a mechanistic model based on these temperature thresholds. We tested the model in a translocation experiment that employed natural temperature gradients as spatial analogues for global warming. In all transects we transferred colonies of T. pityocampa larvae to sites within zones of historical distribution, recent distribution, and outside the present range. We monitored air and nest temperature, incoming solar radiation, larval phenology, feeding activity, and survival. Early‐season temperature effects on phenology were evident, with delayed development of colonies in the more extreme (colder) sites. In the coldest months, our model was consistent with the observed patterns of feeding activity: Feeding was progressively reduced with increasing latitude or elevation, as predicted by the lower number of hours when the feeding threshold was reached, which negatively affected final survival. Insolation raised nest temperature and increased feeding activity on the south but not the north aspect. Prolonged temperature drops below the feeding thresholds occurred at all sites, leading to starvation and partial mortality. Nonetheless, even the most extreme sites still allowed some feeding and, consequently, up to 20% colony survival and successful pupation. Given that the present distribution of the oligophagous T. pityocampa is not constrained by the distribution of its actual or potential hosts, and that warmer winters will cause the number of hours of feeding to increase and the probability of the lower lethal temperature to decrease, we expect the trend of improved survival in previously prohibitive environments to continue, causing further latitudinal and altitudinal expansion. This work highlights the need to develop temperature‐based predictive models for future range shifts of winter‐limited species, with potential applications in management.

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Abstract• This article synthesizes and reviews the available information on the effects of forestry practices on the occurrence of biotic and abiotic hazards, as well as on stand susceptibility to these damaging agents, concentrating on mammal herbivores, pest insects, pathogenic fungi, wind and fire.• The management operations examined are site selection, site preparation, stand composition, regeneration method, cleaning and weed control, thinning and pruning, and harvesting. For each of these operations we have examined how they influence the occurrence of biotic and abiotic damaging agents, the susceptibility of European forests, and describe the ecological processes that may explain these influences.• Overall, we find that the silvicultural operations that have the largest influence on both biotic and abiotic risks to European forest stands are closely related to species composition and the structure of the overstorey. Four main processes that drive the causal relationships between stand management and susceptibility have been identified: effect on local microclimate, provision of fuel and resources to biotic and abiotic hazards, enhancement of biological control by natural enemies and changes in individual tree physiology and development.• The review demonstrates an opportunity to develop silvicultural methods that achieve forest management objectives at the same time as minimising biotic and abiotic risks. Mots-clés :sylviculture / peuplement / occurrence / sensibilité / Résumé -Influences de la sylviculture sur le risque de dégâts biotiques et abiotiques dans les peuplements forestiers.• Cette revue bibliographique s'intéresse aux effets de la sylviculture sur la sensibilité des peuplements forestiers aux principaux agents de dégâts biotiques et abiotiques que sont les mammifères herbivores, les insectes ravageurs, les champignons pathogènes, le feu et les vents forts. * Corresponding author: herve.jactel@pierroton.inra.frArticle published by EDP Sciences Ann. For. Sci. 66 (2009) 701 H. Jactel et al.• Les pratiques forestières analysées sont la sélection et la préparation des sites de reboisement, la définition de la composition en essences et le choix du matériel génétique, les méthodes de régé-nération et d'entretien, les modalités d'éclaircie et d'élagage, le mode de récolte finale. L'influence de chacune de ces opérations sur l'occurrence des agents de dégâts biotiques et abiotiques et sur la sensibilité des peuplements est examinée ainsi que les processus écologiques sous-jacents.• Les opérations sylvicoles qui se révèlent les plus déterminantes pour la sensibilité des forêts en Europe sont celles qui affectent la composition et la structure de la strate arborée. Quatre principaux processus écologiques semblent expliquer la relation entre sylviculture et sensibilité des peuplements : la modification du micro-climat, l'apport de ressources ou de combustible aux agents de dégâts, l'amélioration du contrôle biologique par les ennemis naturels et l'altération de la physiologie et du développement des arb...