Orally administered drugs are subject to a number of barriers impacting bioavailability (F oral ), causing challenges during drug and formulation development. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling can help during drug and formulation development by providing quantitative predictions through a systems approach. The performance of three overpredictions. Discrepancies between software packages were observed for a few APIs, the largest being 606, 171, and 81.7-fold differences in AFE between SimCYP and GI-Sim, however average performance was relatively consistent across the three software platforms. A C C E P T E D M A N U S C R I P T ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Keywords:Physiologically-based pharmacokinetics (PBPK); modelling and simulation (M&S); absorption; oral bioavailability (F oral ); biopharmaceutics; drug database Abbreviations

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Three Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic software packages (GI-Sim, Simcyp® Simulator, and GastroPlus™) were evaluated as part of the Innovative Medicine Initiative Oral Biopharmaceutics Tools project (OrBiTo) during a blinded "bottom-up" anticipation of human pharmacokinetics. After data analysis of the predicted vs. measured pharmacokinetics parameters, it was found that oral bioavailability (F) was underpredicted for compounds with low permeability, suggesting improper estimates of intestinal surface area, colonic absorption and/or lack of intestinal transporter information. F was also underpredicted for acidic compounds, suggesting overestimation of impact of ionisation on permeation, lack of information on intestinal transporters, or underestimation of solubilisation of weak acids due to less than optimal intestinal model pH settings or underestimation of bile micelle contribution. F was overpredicted for weak bases, suggesting inadequate models for precipitation or lack of in vitro precipitation information to build informed models. Relative bioavailability was underpredicted for both high logP compounds as well as poorly water-soluble compounds, suggesting inadequate models for solubility/dissolution, underperforming bile enhancement models and/or lack of biorelevant solubility measurements. These results indicate areas for improvement in model software, modelling approaches, and generation of applicable input data. However, caution is required when interpreting the impact of drug-specific properties in this exercise, as the availability of input parameters was heterogeneous and highly variable, and the modellers generally used the data "as is" in this blinded bottom-up prediction approach.

For the four drugs studied, it appears that the forecasting accuracy of the PBPK models is related to the BCS class (BCS I > BCS II, BCS III > BCS IV). These results will need to be verified with additional drugs.

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