To date, projections of European crop yields under climate change have been based almost entirely on the outputs of crop-growth models. While this strategy can provide good estimates of the effects of climatic factors, soil conditions and management on crop yield, these models usually do not capture all of the important aspects related to crop management, or the relevant environmental factors. Moreover, crop-simulation studies often have severe limitations with respect to the number of crops covered or the spatial extent. The present study based on agroclimatic índices, pro vides a general picture of agroclimatic conditions in western and central Europe (study área lays between 8.5°W-27°E and 37-63.5°N), which allows for a more general assessment of climate-change impacts. The results obtained from the analysis of data from 86 different sites were clustered according to an environmental stratification of Europe. The analysis was carried for the baseline and future climate conditions (time horizons of 2030, 2050 and with a global temperature increase of 5 °C) based on outputs of three global circulation models. For many environmental zones, there were clear signs of deteriorating agroclimatic condition in terms of increased drought stress and shortening of the active growing season, which in some regions become increasingly squeezed between a cold winter and a hot summer. For most zones the projections show a marked need for adaptive measures to either increase soil water availability or drought resistance of crops. This study concludes that rainfed agriculture is likely to face more climate-related risks, although the analyzed agroclimatic indicators will probably remain at a level that should permit rainfed production. However, results suggests that there is a risk of increasing number of extremely unfavorable years in many climate zones, which might result in higher interannual yield variability and constitute a challenge for proper crop management.

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A mechanistic growth model was used to evaluate the mean yield and yield variability of grapevine Vjtis vinifera L. under current and future climates. The model used was previously validated using field experiment data. The effect of elevated CO2 on grapevine growth was also considered. Adaptation of 2 varieties (Sangiovese and Cabernet Sauvignon) to scenarios of increased CO2 and climate change, and potential changes in agricultural risk (i.e. inter-seasonal variability), were examined. Before testing the effect of climate scenarios, we analysed the sensitivity of modelled grapevine yield to arbitrary changes in the 3 driving variables (temperature, solar radiation and COz). The results showed the model to be more sensitive to changes in CO2 concentration and temperature than to changes in radiation. Analyses made using transient GCM (general circulation model) scenarios (UKTR and GFDL) showed different changes in mean fruit dry matter for the different scenarios, whereas mean total dry matter, and fruit and total dry matter variability, were predicted to increase under almost all the scenarios. Predictions based on equilibrium scenarios (UKLO and UKHI) gave similar results. For Sangiovese, vancty adaptation analysis suggested a better adaptation in terms of mean production, but a worse adaptation in terms of yield variab~l~ty.

Nowadays, no studies have been published on the relationship between meteorological conditions and work-related mortality and morbidity in Italy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between hot weather conditions and hospital admissions due to work-related accidents in Tuscany (central Italy) over the period 1998-2003. Apparent temperature (AT) values were calculated to evaluate human weather discomfort due to hot conditions and then tested for work accident differences using non-parametric procedures. Present findings showed that hot weather conditions might represent a risk factor for work-related accidents in Italy during summer. In particular early warming days during June, characterized by heat discomfort, are less tolerated by workers than warming days of the following summer months. The peak of work-related accidents occurred on days characterized by high, but not extreme, thermal conditions. Workers maybe change their behaviour when heat stress increases, reducing risks by adopting preventive measures. Results suggested that days with an average daytime AT value ranged between 24.8°C and 27.5°C were at the highest risk of work-related accidents. In conclusion, present findings might represent the first step for the development of a watch/warning system for workers that might be used by employers for planning work activities.

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