An attempt has been carried out to assess the efficacy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting the genesis and intensification events of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) Fani (26 April – 04 May 2019) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). WRF model has been conducted on a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) FNL (final) data (0.250 × 0.250). According to the model simulated outcome analysis, the model is capable of predicting the Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and Maximum Sustainable Wind Speed (MSWS) pattern reasonably well, despite some deviations. The model has forecasted the Lowest Central Pressure (LCP) of 919 hPa and the MSWS of 70 ms-1 based on 0000 UTC of 26 April. Except for the model run based on 0000 UTC of 26 April, the simulated values of LCP are relatively higher than the observations. According to the statistical analysis, MSLP and MSWS at 850 hPa level demonstrate a significantly greater influence on Tropical Cyclone (TC) formation and intensification process than any other parameters. The model can predict the intensity features well enough, despite some uncertainty regarding the proper lead time of the model run. Reduced lead time model run, particularly 24 to 48 hr, can be chosen to forecast the genesis and intensification events of TC with minimum uncertainty. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 85-100

Tropical cyclone causes enormous damage of property and life in the coastal regions of Bangladesh. Majority of the damage during tropical cyclone occurs because of storm surge. Bangladesh is vulnerable to storm surge flooding due to its complex geometry and location. The huge loss of property and life can be reduced by predicting storm surge during a tropical cyclone. So, an attempt has been made in this study to see the effectiveness of predicting storm surge by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) storm surge model from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). In this study, MRI storm surge model is used to simulate storm surge of five cyclones cyclone Bulbul (November 2019), cyclone Fani (May 2019), cyclone Mora (May 2017), cyclone Roanu (May 2016) and cyclone Komen (July 2015) were simulated using MRI storm surge model to see the effectiveness of the model. The model was run for 48-hours for two different data sets which are, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data and Global Spectral Model (GSM) data. Simulated storm surge heights found from the model are compared with the reported surge height from Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA) and Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). The model is able to simulate storm surge height, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind data of all the selected cases. The time series graph developed using python comparing the simulated results of storm surge height data with observed data for the event cyclone Bulbul showed the simulated data of both NWP datasets were in line with the observed data. And comparison of the maximum storm surge height for all five events shows simulated data for both the data sets were close to the reported data and the difference was well within the margin of error. The results indicate MRI model as a useful tool for storm surge forecasting The Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 9(1), 2020, P 31-38

The sensitivity of Microphysics Parameterization (MP) schemes has been analyzed in the prediction of intensity and track of tropical cyclone (TC) Mora (28th May-31st May, 2017), over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) using WRF model. The study of MP schemes in numerical simulation is important because it includes microphysical process and cloud dynamics that controls the latent heat release in clouds. In this study seven MP schemes (Kessler, Lin, WSM3, Eta, WSM6, MYDM7, and WDM5) are used to study the variation in Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), Maximum Wind Speed (MWS), rainfall distributions, and Tracks. The root mean square error (RMSE) of MSLP, MWS and 72-h simulated tracks are found minimum for WSM3 scheme while the RMSE of rainfall, 48 and 24-h simulated tracks are found minimum for WDM5 scheme. In conclusion, WSM3 and WDM5 schemes may give better results in the prediction of slowly intensifying TC like Mora. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 67(1): 33-40, 2019 (January)

In this paper an effort has been made to simulate the monsoon Low Pressure System (LPS) and its associated rainfall event of 16-20 August, 2013 using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The model was run for 24-h, 48-h and 72-h in a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution using The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) high-resolution Global Final (FNL) Analysis 6-hourly data using initial and lateral boundary conditions. WRF double-moment 5 class micro physics scheme, Kain–Fritsch (new Eta) cumulus physics scheme,Yonsei University planetary boundary layer scheme, Revised MM5 surface layer physics scheme, Unified Noah LSM as land surface model, Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) for long-wave and Dudhia scheme for short-wave scheme are used for the simulation. The performance of the model is evaluated analyzing Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP), Wind Pattern, Vorticity, Vertical Wind Shear and Rainfall Distribution. The model successfully captured the low pressure system, initial condition, propagation, landfall time and location reasonably well. The model simulated rainfall amount and associated areas sensibly well compared with the observed data by BMD and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 66(1): 29-35, 2018 (January)

An attempt has been made to simulate the thermodynamic features of the thunderstorm (TS) event over Dhaka (23.81°N, 90.41°E)