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In the framework of the European project CONFIDENCE, Work Package 1 (WP1) focused on the uncertainties in the pre- and early phase of a radiological emergency, when environmental observations are not available and the assessment of the environmental and health impact of the accident largely relies on atmospheric dispersion modelling. The latter is subject to large uncertainties coming from, in particular, meteorological and release data. In WP1, several case studies were identified, including hypothetical accident scenarios in Europe and the Fukushima accident, for which participants propagated input uncertainties through their atmospheric dispersion and subsequent dose models. This resulted in several ensembles of results (consisting of tens to hundreds of simulations) that were compared to each other and to radiological observations (in the Fukushima case). These ensembles were analysed in order to answer questions such as: among meteorology, source term and model-related uncertainties, which are the predominant ones? Are uncertainty assessments very different between the participants and can this inter-ensemble variability be explained? What are the optimal ways of characterizing and presenting the uncertainties? Is the ensemble modelling sufficient to encompass the observations, or are there sources of uncertainty not (sufficiently) taken into account? This paper describes the case studies of WP1 and presents some illustrations of the results, with a summary of the main findings.

One of the many risks of long-duration space flights is the excessive exposure to cosmic radiation, which has great importance particularly during solar flares and higher sun activity. Monitoring of the cosmic radiation on board space vehicles is carried out on the basis of wide international co-operation. Since space radiation consists mainly of charged heavy particles (protons, alpha and heavier particles), the equivalent dose differs significantly from the absorbed dose. A radiation weighting factor (w(R)) is used to convert absorbed dose (Gy) to equivalent dose (Sv). w(R) is a function of the linear energy transfer of the radiation. Recently used equipment is suitable for measuring certain radiation field parameters changing in space and over time, so a combination of different measurements and calculations is required to characterise the radiation field in terms of dose equivalent. The objectives of this project are to develop and manufacture a three-axis silicon detector telescope, called Tritel, and to develop software for data evaluation of the measured energy deposition spectra. The device will be able to determine absorbed dose and dose equivalent of the space radiation.