The juxtaposition of climate change and development changes is vital for understanding the future impacts of heat stress in urban areas. However, an approach that considers the relationship between climatic factors and socioeconomic vulnerability in a forward-looking and stakeholder-involved manner is challenging. This article demonstrates the application of a future-oriented vulnerability scenarios approach to address human heat stress in Bonn, Germany, in 2035. The study highlights the interplays between climate trajectories and heat exposure associated with urban development scenario corridors. Moreover, this method allows for changing combinations of intersections and conditionalities of projected individual socio-economic vulnerability indicators in response to social and climate governance. However, this study found that a conventional structure within city departments might limit this integrative approach in practice. Thus, the theoretical background and the concept of alternative futures and uncertainties should be the focus of communication with practitioners to maximize the utilization of the results.
In order to reveal the present and future flooding impacts on residential and mixed-use areas, a parallel modelling approach (PMA) was carried out. With the use of geo-information systems (GIS), temporal and spatial impacts can be quantified and visualised, while the results of the proposed method justify adequate regional planning strategies for the Ruhr, Germany. As an information system which is regularly updated within a cooperation process between the municipalities concerned, the so called ruhrFISְ of the Ruhr Regional Association (RVR) seems to be a promising approach to improve the evidence basis for adaptation actions.
The effects of climate change and associated extreme weather events such as heat, storms and heavy rainfall lead to considerable damage to property and personal injury worldwide. To counteract the causes and consequences of climate change, many states, regions and cities worldwide declared the status of climate emergency in 2019. As a result, scientists and urban planners intensified their efforts to develop appropriate mechanisms and measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change and its consequences. This paper presents an informal systematic and user-driven governance instrument, which examines the ecological, social and economic effects of urban interventions – the ‘Sustainability Check’. As a target-based assessment tool, it provides decision-makers with information about the extent to which a planned intervention corresponds with future-oriented urban development. The check results from the research project ZUKUR (‘Future of the Urban Region Ruhr’), in which researchers and practitioners from the City of Bottrop (Germany) worked together in a real-world laboratory. The Sustainability Check is novel because it combines elements of an impact assessment tailored to user needs and links sustainable urban development goals with resilient and environmentally just urban development at the local level. Based on the first application, we conclude that the Sustainability Check significantly contributes to developing a future-oriented city. Adapted to the local and context-specific needs of a city, it offers systematic consideration of the requirements of sustainable, resilient and environmentally just urban development in an efficient manner and at the early-stage.
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