Introduction. The modern development of society is an extremely complex process that is formed under the influence of numerous factors. It is contradictory, can move from one point of bifurcation to another, undergo numerous changes. Therefore, in order to develop perspective strategies and risk management, society needs a certain analytical and prognostic toolkit - a kind of algorithm for describing the determining trends by which society moves. Megatrends are stable and long-term processes that determine the patterns of formation of interconnected and mutually determined economic, political, socio-cultural relations and relations of human interaction with nature. Goal. The purpose of the article is to identify conceptual approaches to determining the main trends in the evolution of the global economic system. The tasks of the research include the establishment of the main megatrends that change the life of modern society, the substantiation of the concepts of "megasociety" and "megaeconomy", and the identification of global megatrends in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Methodology. Scientific research was carried out using analysis and synthesis in order to study the main trends in the evolution of the global economic system; graphic methods for visual representation of the material. The results. It was found that megatrends are stable and long-term processes that determine the regularities of the formation of interconnected and mutually determined economic, political, socio-cultural relations and relations of human interaction with nature. The main megatrends according to J. Naisbit are considered. The concept of "megasociety" is defined as a manifestation of a set of political, economic, socio-cultural relations and relations of human interaction with nature, which is gradually being built under the influence of megatrends. It has been found that nowadays the main trend in the field of political relations of society is the trend of changing the world order, i.e. the process of systemic transformation that was caused by the war unleashed by Russia in the center of Europe on the territory of Ukraine. The processes of formation of a multipolar model of the world order are developing. It is noted that multipolarity is essentially consistent with regionalization. It was determined that globalization is a natural phase of the world historical process, during which the degree of interdependence of countries and mesoeconomic structures periodically changes. This process constantly acquires a new quality, changes in the forms of embodiment of its essence, but does not disappear and does not lose the status of a megatrend in the development of humanity. It has been argued that global megatrends in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution include technological progress; climate change, scarcity of resources; demographic changes; changes in economic power; acceleration of urbanization. During the Fourth Industrial Revolution, a fundamentally new system of production is being built - smart production, which corresponds to the smart economy - an innovative, knowledge-based, intelligent management system. The trend of greening the life of society (greening of consumption, production, technologies, economy, etc.) is considered, which involves the development and implementation by the world community of systemic measures for the perfection of nature management.
Today, the world is trying to maintain a global tendency in the development of a sustainable economy, responding to various threats, risks and challenges: the COVID-19 pandemic; political instability; wars; the formation of multipolarity of the world; spread of processes of technologization and digitalization, energy imbalances; demographic and environmental problems, etc. The purpose of the article is to study global tendencies in the development of the world economy, the influence of destabilizing factors, the selection of megatrends, which are caused by the formation of a post-industrial mode of production. It is specified that economic megatrends are formed as result of technological revolutions and changes in the mode of production. According to the content of these transformations, the current stage of society’s life represents the beginning of the development of post-industrial relations. This type of technical, economic and socioeconomic relations determines the long-term vectors of economic development, which are based on basic innovations – digital technologies, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, etc. It is stated that big trends, or megatrends, are manifestations of long-term vector changes. However, in the current periods of their objectification, megatrends are influenced by many factors – there is an adjustment of the current dynamics within the framework of the general determining trend of economic development. It is emphasized that the most significant in our time is the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to the weakening of international economic ties and the rupture of supply chains. This was followed almost immediately by the russian military invasion of Ukraine, the consequences of which affect the social (including economic) life not only of European countries, but also of the world in general. The cumulative and repeatedly enhanced due to their simultaneity, the negative impact of these factors significantly adjusts the parameters of global economic trends – temporal, structural and others – at present. It is found that in 2022 there is a decrease in the global economic growth rate to 2.9% compared to the growth rate in 2021 by 5.7%, and, according to the forecast, during 2023-2024 there will be no compensation. In such a situation, inflation will remain high, which could lead to a sharp global recession along with financial crises in some market-based and emerging economies. It is determined that the dynamics of GDP of the pre-pandemic and pre-war period highlighted the outstripping growth rate of the economy in developing countries, compared with the dynamics of GDP of developed countries. The carried out studies have shown that a larger share of world GDP is created in developed countries, and by 2032 the contribution by groups of countries (developed / developing) will not become equal, although it will gravitate towards this parity. The prognosticated paces of global economic growth by region in 2023–2024 are examined. The significant negative impact on the world economy of russia’s invasion of Ukraine in general and in certain regions in particular is emphasized. It is concluded that the harshest consequences of the war would be for Europe and Central Asia. A slowdown in growth this year is forecast in all regions other than the Middle East and North Africa – that is, in those regions where countries can benefit from energy prices. For all regions with a market and a developing economy, the following risks occur: increased geopolitical tensions; rising inflation and food shortages; financial stress and increasing the cost of loans; new outbreaks of COVID-19, etc. It is noted that the need to reduce the negative impact of these risks led to the search by society for such directions of development that would become an impetus for economic growth and restore market activity. In the period of formation of the post-industrial technological mode of production, nano-, bio-, info-, cognitive technologies became decisive. The carried out research provides grounds to assert that the six economies named by the UN (exabyte, welfare, carbon-neutral, closed cycle, biogrowth, impressions) are megatrends, since such transformations are the result of the formation of a post-industrial mode of production – a special type of relations: technical and economic (productive forces) and socioeconomic (production relations).
The article addresses the problems of concord of objectively existing processes occurring in the modes of manufacture of the modern globalised society and subjective perceptions of scientists, politics, state regarding uses of their results in the interest of the business, the person and the humanity. Key findings: Peculiarities of functioning and development of the modern economy and society connected with quality changes in movers, value orientations and motivations under the globalisation and Industry 4.0 have been substantiated. The methodological paradigm of the economic policy in the conditions of the global transformations has been identified. Contradictions of the neoliberalism as the methodological paradigm of the economic policy have been revealed. It has been found that the approaches and principles of the economic policy based on neoliberalism will result (and they do result, on an increasing scale) in exacerbation of inequality and hence the polarization of society, unemployment and transformation of the part of the active population to the precariat. It has been reasoned that the post-neoliberal paradigm of the economic policy development in the countries of the world is being formed as an alternative to the neoliberal paradigm and it focuses on governments' change in attitude to the poor, on the development of the social consensus based on the principles of the economic growth requirements as well as on the sensitivity to the challenges of the poverty and society. Conclusions: the authors have reasoned and proven that the actions of the scientists, business and politics relating to the methodological paradigm of the economic policy of the development in the conditions of the global transformations and the Industry 4.0 should be grounded on the following principles and tasks: considering the dynamics of the transformation of the strategic goals and architectonics of the world economy and the society in the 21st century; achieving dominance build on the Industry 4.0 opportunities, as well as on the human-centric values of economic development intrinsic to human civilisation; limitation of excessively subjective beliefs of politicians and government officials regarding the contents of such a development which are often based in such features as low or insufficient education, knowledge, competencies, lack of significant experience, and, therefore, organisation capital and strategic thinkingwhich is dangerous as may generate chaos and entropy processes; therefore, the key principle of the conscious scientific way of forming the modern economic policy models should be overcoming the inertia of the paradigmatic thinking based on the absolutization of neoliberal paradigm; promoting the genesis of the post-neoliberal type of thinking with all the subjects of economic life.
Abstract. It has been substantiated that digitalization is a driver of the transformation of employment in different countries.The degree of formation of the digitalized labor market by groups of countries with different levels of per capita income has been studied. It is proved that the use of digital technologies by the vast majority of companies and the economically active population simplifies the procedure of job creation, giving the opportunity to work via the Internet within the so-called “on-demand economy”. With the high degree of implementation of digital, information and communication technologies, the share of employees in the service sector is growing in the majority of countries. It is stated that the degree of digitalization of the labor market is uneven in the world. The introduction of modern technologies in high-income countries allows the population to fully realize the intellectual and creative potential, finding a job in the most efficient sector of the economy – the high-tech and knowledge-intensive services. Despite the rapid spread of digital technologies and the rapid growth of employment in the service sector in the upper-middle-income countries, the level of digital transformation of the labor market is much lower than in the high-income countries. Nowadays, there is a digital divide between these groups of countries, although, with the effective policies of governments in the upper-middle-income countries, there is a high probability of achievement of indicators of countries that are digital leaders. The trend of gradual digitalization of the services sector is also observed in the lower-middle-income countries. It is noted that the low prevalence of information and communication technologies in low-income countries makes it impossible for the population of these countries to join the global digitalized labor market. A set of measures has been systematized to harmonize the policies of governments of different countries in the field of labor relations, which are being transformed under the influence of global digitalization. Keywords: digital technologies, digitalization, employment, global digitalized labor market, high-income countries, lower-middle-income countries, low-income countries, upper-middle-income countries. JEL Classification F66, J24, J40, О33 Formulas: 5; fig.: 4, table.: 0; bibl.: 26.
Abstract. It was ascertained that the global status of a country is determined by a set of its characteristics as an entity of international relations identifying the place it occupies among other countries over a certain historical period of time. The global status is defined as the relative position of countries in the system of international relations. The main factors that determine the global status of countries are economic development; achievements in science, technology and innovation; development of social spheres (health care, education, social protection); the outcome of distributing and exercising power within the state (domestic policy) as well as between states (foreign policy); the effectiveness of institutions; and governance efficiency in the field of environmental management. It is proved that the global status of countries depends primarily on how effectively each of its spheres functions in terms of the interests of society’s development. At the same time, it depends on the synergistic effect — the coordinated action of all components of the socio-natural system (aggregate endogenous factor) and the degree of the country inclusion in the system of modern international relations, which is largely due to globalisation (exogenous factor). It is stated that the country’s acquisition of a different global status compared to the previous one reflects the status dynamics. That means a change in the roles played by countries in the system of international relations, i.e. the process of transforming their behavior on the world stage. These starting points of the study of the place and role of individual countries in the modern globalized world became the basis for the analysis of Ukraine’s position (by areas of activity and in general). The global status of Ukraine is defined and interpreted through correlation with the criteria derived from the theory of world-system analysis. Based on these methodological principles, modern problems have been identified and the possibility of further development of Ukraine has been assessed. Keywords: world economy, global status of countries, problems and contradictions of social development, socio-natural system, globalisation. JEL Classification B41, F62, F63, F64, F68 Formulas: 0; fig.: 0; tabl.: 4; bibl.: 27.
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