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Abstract. The Brazilian electricity mix is currently dominated by renewable energy forms, foremost hydropower. Large additional capacity demands are expected in the mid-term future but additional potential for hydro power is limited. In addition it is planned to construct more than 17 GW of wind power and additional capacity of photovoltaics (PV). Due to the fluctuating nature of such renewables, however, wind and PV are hardly able to provide firm capacity. Concentrated solar power (CSP) might be a feasible option to provide firm and dispatchable capacity at low carbon emissions. This study analyses the opportunities for integrating CSP into the Brazilian energy system. Making use of the TiPS-B model, a novel application of the optimization model generator TIMES, we compare different climate protection strategies with a reference scenario and analyze the contribution of CSP to the electricity mix. The analysis covers various types of CSP power plants with molten salt energy storage where we look at possible dispatch strategies considering the fluctuations in electricity supply and use. The consideration of solar water heaters (SWH) is the first step to transfer the power system model to an energy system model that is capable of showing the benefits of energy saving measures on the demand side. It can be demonstrated that the Brazilian power system is likely to change significantly in future. This development would go hand in hand with a strong increase in carbon emissions if no mitigation actions are taken and fossil fueled power plants are used to fill the gap in capacity. CSP power plants are found as a feasible alternative for covering the demand while taking carbon mitigation actions. In a scenario, aiming at 4 and 2 degrees global warming, CSP provides for 7.6 GW and 14.6 GW capacity in 2050, respectively. Different storage configurations are used to provide energy in the evening hours to cover the demand peak providing a strong benefit over photovoltaic electricity generation without an energy storage option. The use of SWH results in a 35 GW (2d SWH scenario) and 25 GW (2d CSP SWH scenario) lower demand for power capacity in that year

MESSAGE, TIMES and REMIX-CEM are potential tools for modelling a larger penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) into the Brazilian power system. They also allow devising the opportunities that concentrated solar power (CSP) plants offer to the power system and to the wider energy system. There are different opportunities for CSP in Brazil in the short and medium term, consolidating this technology as a feasible alternative for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in Brazil. This work verified that CSP is a cost-effective option only under very stringent mitigation scenarios (4DS and 2DS) and when carbon capture and storage (CCS) is not available. Still, according to the findings of REMIX-CEM-B, CSP can provide firm energy and dispatchable capacity in the Northeast region of Brazil, optimally complementing wind and PV generation. Moreover, CSP can offer additional flexibility to the Northeast power system, especially during winter and after 2030.

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