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Abstract. Possible implications of a GWP-based implementation of GHG reductions on future man-made climate change are explored. Abatement scenarios are established in terms of "COx equivalents" using GWP100; one scenario reducing COx only, and one reducing short-lived gases, mainly CH4. Future temperature changes are calculated by using a simple climate model. Equal emission scenarios in terms of COx equivalents do not imply equivalent climate responses and large differences in the magnitude and rate of temperature change are calculated.

In the late 1980s/early 1990s the concept of leadership was introduced in the study of international regimes to describe the role negotiating parties some-times would take on to craft agreement. The concept seemed to grasp an essential feature of multilateral cooperative efforts: that parties can be differentiated by the extent to which they are capable of, and willing to, take on a particular responsibility of guiding other parties in directions that could lead to joint solutions. The concept of leadership has only to a small extent been subjected to critical analytical and conceptual discussion. In this article we revisit the concept by asking: What are the characteristic features of leadership in international negotiations? Our analysis shows that current conceptualizations of leadership are associated with significant ambiguities that make it hard to distinguish leadership behavior from other types of bargaining behavior and that these problems are reproduced in empirical identifications of this mode of bargaining behavior. (c) 2006 by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The primary focus of most academic climate policy studies has been the robustness of climate science and the development of international negotiations and institutions, in which states, and sometimes societies, have been pinpointed as the key players. Systematic comparative studies of multinational and even global non-governmental actors have been in short supply. This research lacuna is particularly glaring since the position of a major non-state actor-the oil industry-may be crucial to the viability of the climate regime. This analysis shows that there are striking differences in the ways European-based and US-based oil companies have responded to the climate issue-here represented by the Royal Dutch/Shell Group and Exxon Mobil-and that one major source of explanation for this difference is found in the national political contexts of the companies' home-base countries. The importance of political context implies that the conditions for changing oil companies' climate strategies are likely to be located in the political context rather than in the companies themselves. Copyright (c) 2001 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Political feasibility (or infeasibility) is often associated with targetgroup support (or opposition) of specific policy alternatives. We argue that targetgroups' capacity to influence the spectrum of politically feasible policy options tends to be higher when (1) target groups control resources needed by decisionmakers, that (2) are agenda-setters and/or veto players in the decision-making process. In the 2008 revision of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) exemptions from the basic principle of full auctioning of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions allowances can all be traced to target-group interest representation by single veto players or blocking minorities in the European Council and the Council of Ministers. Our analysis indicates that target groups succeeded in constraining the spectrum of politically feasible policy options to the extent that their positions were unified and threats to shut down or relocate activity were perceived to be relevant, severe and credible. Our findings confirm both the significance and the limits of portfolio assignment in the Commission. Even with Directorate General (DG) Environment in an agenda-setting role, target groups acquired exemptions through their relations with veto players in the Council.