The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the recent recession and of macroeconomic variables over the indebtedness in Brazilian industry sectors. The gap derives from the preference for investigating the reaction of capital structure according to economic sectors. However, it has to be considered that industry sectors react differently to variations in the economic context, since they have different optimal points of capital structure composition. The relevance of the chosen topic lies in carrying out a sectorial analysis of the effect of recession and of macroeconomic variables on capital structure composition, identifying the most sensitive sectors. It is also relevant in terms of being based on classical financial theories applied to the current context, in order to help predict the proportion of debt given fluctuations in a set of macroeconomic variables. Standing out among the main contributions of this article are the analysis of the level of indebtedness of Brazilian companies given the occurrence of recession and variations in the macroeconomy, identifying sectors that are most exposed to modifying their capital structure due to these factors. Six research hypotheses were formulated and tested using multiple linear regression, with two-stage fixed effects based on panel data collected from 211 companies, classified into six sectors, with data relating to the first quarter of 2010 up to the first quarter of 2018. The results revealed that the recent Brazilian recession was relevant for the capital structure of the sectors studied, with inflation only being significant for the health sector. The level of indebtedness of the basic materials sector was shown to be the most dependent on economic fluctuations and that of telephony and utilities was shown to be the least dependent. In addition, it was verified that the company-specific variables have greater relevance in determining capital structure compared to the macroeconomic ones.

This study aimed to identify the relationship between the Structural Liquidity Index (SLI) and macroeconomic variables, bank characteristics, and the validity period of the Basel III Agreement. Although the academic discussion on bank liquidity essentially addresses short-term issues, monitoring long-term liquidity helps assess any excessive dependency of banks on unstable resources, thus contributing to mitigating the risks of systemic liquidity crises such as that of 2008. As it provides evidence of the relationship between the SLI and the selected explanatory variables, the study can be included in the context of the discussions involving the Basel III Agreement, which establishes the implementation of the long-term liquidity index regulatory requirement as of 2018. The model was formulated based on fourteen research hypotheses, tested using panel data regressions estimated via pooled ordinary least squares, least squares with fixed effects, and two-stage least squares with fixed effects. The dependent variable was constructed based on the accounting data of 184 conglomerates and individual financial institutions operating in the country between June 2002 and December 2014. The SLI presented a positive relationship with changes in the exchange rate, international reserves, and reserve requirements, as well as with the profitability, size, and main specialization of the institution. On the other hand, we found a negative relationship between the SLI and the basic interest rate, country risk, balance of trade, validity period of the Basel III Agreement, type of equity control (private vs. government), and the bank being publicly listed on the São Paulo Stock, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBovespa) or privately held. The validation of the relationships between these explanatory variables and the SLI provides a broader understanding of the risks to which financial institutions are exposed, contributing to the preventive analysis of bank liquidity risk - an antecedent indicator of financial crises, diminished confidence, and economic instability.

A recente piora das condições macroeconômicas do país, com reflexos no agravamento das finanças públicas nos três níveis de governo trazem à tona preocupações com a sustentabilidade da dívida pública. As diversas repactuações da dívida municipal realizadas desde 1987, bem como a promulgação da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal (LRF), que limitou despesas e endividamento, com vistas a estabelecer maior governança à Administração Pública, são exemplos de esforços do Governo Federal para conter a deterioração da situação fiscal dos entes subnacionais. Nesse sentido, espera-se que as dívidas contraídas por estes entes sejam sustentáveis. Dessa forma, este estudo objetiva identificar a existência de condição de sustentabilidade da dívida pública municipal agregada com base em testes de estacionariedade e cointegração da dívida com o resultado primário, assim como pela reação desse último às variações daquela. A verificação mês a mês, compreendendo o período de 2002 a 2018, foi realizada por meio do teste proposto por Pasinetti (1998). Os resultados econométricos indicaram sustentabilidade para o período completo de 2002 a 2015. Entretanto, o teste de Pasinetti apontou persistência de insustentabilidade por quarenta e seis meses consecutivos iniciados em fevereiro de 2015 até novembro de 2018, havendo relação com a recessão econômica. Os achados indicam que as medidas de socorro implementadas pelo Governo Federal e a austeridade pretendida pela LRF não foram suficientes para manter a dívida pública dos municípios em patamar considerado sustentável nos períodos recentes.