Background: One month after the first COVID-19 infection was recorded, Portugal counted 18,051 cases and 599 deaths from COVID-19. To understand the overall impact on mortality of the pandemic of COVID-19, we estimated the excess mortality registered in Portugal during the first month of the epidemic, from March 16 until April 14 using two different methods. Methods: We compared the observed and expected daily deaths (historical average number from daily death registrations in the past 10 years) and used 2 standard deviations confidence limit for all-cause mortality by age and specific mortality cause, considering the last 6 years. An adapted Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was also tested to validate the estimated number of all-cause deaths during the study period. Results: Between March 16 and April 14, there was an excess of 1255 all-cause deaths, 14% more than expected. The number of daily deaths often surpassed the 2 standard deviations confidence limit. The excess mortality occurred mostly in people aged 75+. Forty-nine percent (49%) of the estimated excess deaths were registered as due to COVID-19, the other 51% registered as other natural causes. Conclusion: Even though Portugal took early containment measures against COVID-19, and the population complied massively with those measures, there was significant excess mortality during the first month of the pandemic, mostly among people aged 75+. Only half of the excess mortality was registered as directly due do COVID-19.
Epidemic surveillance is a fundamental part of public health practice. Addressing under-ascertainment of cases is relevant in most surveillance systems, especially in pandemics of new diseases with a large spectrum of clinical presentations as it may influence timings of policy implementation and public risk perception. From this perspective, this article presents and discusses early evidence on under-ascertainment of COVID-19 and its motifs, options for surveillance, and reflections around their importance to tailor public health measures. In the case of COVID-19, systematically addressing and estimating under-ascertainment of cases is essential to tailor timely public health measures, and communicating these findings is of the utmost importance for policy making and public perception.
Background The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been measured in different metrics, mostly by counting deaths and its impact on health services. Few studies have attempted to calculate years of life lost (YLL) to COVID-19 and compare it with YLL due to other causes in different countries. Methods We calculated YLL to COVID-19 from week10 to week52 in 2020 for eight European countries by methods defined by the WHO. We calculated excess YLL by subtracting the average YLL from 2017 to 2019 to the YLL in 2020. Our analysis compared YLL to COVID-19 and the excess YLL of non-COVID-19 causes across countries in Europe. Results Portugal registered 394,573 cases and 6619 deaths due to COVID-19, accounting for 25,395 YLL in just 10 months. COVID-19 was responsible for 6.7% of all deaths but accounted for only 4.2% of all YLL. We estimate that Portugal experienced an excess of 35,510 YLL (+ 6.2%), of which 72% would have been due to COVID-19 and 28% due to non-COVID-19 causes. Spain, Portugal, and the Netherlands experienced excess YLL to non-COVID-19 causes. We also estimated that Portugal experienced an excess of 10,115 YLL due to cancer (3805), cardiovascular diseases (786) and diseases of the respiratory system (525). Conclusion COVID-19 has had a major impact on mortality rates in Portugal, as well as in other European countries. The relative impact of COVID-19 on the number of deaths has been greater than on the number of YLL, because COVID-19 deaths occur mostly in advanced ages.
In Europe, cases of chlamydia (CT), gonorrhoea (NG) and syphilis (TP) are rising and coinfections and reinfections are common. As there are limited data on factors associated with these events in Portugal, this study may be valuable to inform prevention strategies. We conducted an analytical cross-sectional study with all probable and confirmed cases of CT (including lymphogranuloma venereum), NG and TP notified in Portugal in the national system of epidemiological surveillance (SINAVE®) between January 1st, 2015 and December 31st, 2018. Descriptive and multivariable analyses were conducted and adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Among 6506 cases in SINAVE®, 858 (13.2%) were coinfections and 204 (3.1%) were reinfections. Coinfections were found in 14.0% of males and 10.2% of females, while reinfections were present in 3.8% of males and 0.8% of females. In multivariable analysis, coinfections were positively associated with being younger than 26 (aOR 2.45, 95% CI 1.81-3.30), living in Lisbon area (aOR 1.43, 95% CI 1.13-1.81), being symptomatic (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.53-2.18), being men who have sex with men (MSM) (aOR 1.63, 95% CI 1.28-2.07), HIV+ status (aOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.19-1.80) and being diagnosed in an NGO (aOR 1.68, 95% CI 1.29-2.19). Reinfections were positively associated with living in Lisbon area (aOR 2.53, 95% CI 1.43-4.47), being symptomatic (aOR 2.37, 95% CI 1.66-3.37), being MSM (aOR 3.69, 95% CI 2.17-6.30) and HIV+ status (aOR 1.68, 95% CI 1.18-2.39). This study contributes to identifying risk profiles for coinfection and reinfection by these STIs in Portugal. Younger age, living in Lisbon area, being MSM, HIV+ status and being diagnosed in an NGO are some of the associated factors. Targeted interventions are needed to tackle specific settings and populations to be successful in lowering STI's incidence in Portugal. Key messages We identified factors associated with coinfection and reinfection by chlamydia, gonorrhoea and syphilis in Portugal, that can be used to target interventions. A study to identify the changes and problems in sexual attitudes and sexual behaviour may be useful to help us understand this paradigm.
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