EMA in Spring 1987 celebrated its fifteenth anniversary by discussing agendas for the remainder of the twentieth century. Here the debate develops through considering what the future holds — factors that go beyond the current Government's proposals.
FuturologyFuturologist prosper in times of rapid change. In the UK, particularly, they are attracted to consider long-term national prospects, because change or, more precisely, failure to respond appropriately appears to place these in some doubt (McCrae, 1982). Alternatively, they try to predict key societal trends so that aspects ,. of individual, group or national behaviour might be predicted (Naisbitt, 1984). The paradox is clear. The faster the rate of change the greater the difficulty in estimating the future, yet the bigger the need (apparently) to seek the views of futurologists. Change induces insecurity, and we are keen to known about different future for two reasons. First, because it can provide some measure of reassurance. Second, by gaining a few insights, however imprecise, there is a possibility of relative advantage. A firm, for example, which can predict market demand or customer preferences with more accuracy than its competitors stands to gain.For most educational institutions attempts at precise forecasting are unnecessary. Compared to commercial organisations they exist in a less competitive environment, therefore the potential gains from accurate predictions are fewer. In any case the general pattern of provision and activity is well-defined. A school which caters for 11-18 year olds mostly has a well-defined catchment area. Rapid changes in pupil numbers, through demography or competition with other schools, are unlikely. Even a major upheaval, such as the establishment of a tertiary college, involves a timescale of several years. There is a certain predictability, which extends to the processes of the school. The introduction of the General Certif cate of Secondary Education (GCSE), for example, has introduced considerable resource problems because of the need for new teaching arrangements, but its arrival was known well in advance. Only in further education is there a need for rapid response to substantial fluctuations in consumer demand; the establishment of the Youth Training Scheme (YTS) being a good example. Even in such cases, howevtr; institutional reaction is rarely characterised by efforts to project the future environment. College staff are more concerned with the demands made upon them by current schemes than they are about planning to deal with their successors. Two factors explain this attitude. First, schools and colleges are reactive organisations. They respond to changes in their environment because there is no alternative. A political decision is taken to change the catchment area of a school, or convert it from 11-18 to 11-16 age-range. The school may lobby to influence the political decision-making but when the change is agreed it has to comply. Similarly, when a local education authority (LEA) chooses (probably unwil...
