A major reorganization of the North‐east Pacific biota transpired following a climatic `regime shift' in the mid 1970s. In this paper, we characterize the effects of interdecadal climate forcing on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific Ocean. We consider the concept of scale in terms of both time and space within the North Pacific ecosystem and develop a conceptual model to illustrate how climate variability is linked to ecosystem change. Next we describe a number of recent studies relating climate to marine ecosystem dynamics in the NE Pacific Ocean. These studies have focused on most major components of marine ecosystems – primary and secondary producers, forage species, and several levels of predators. They have been undertaken at different time and space scales. However, taken together, they reveal a more coherent picture of how decadal‐scale climate forcing may affect the large oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific. Finally, we synthesize the insight gained from interpreting these studies. Several general conclusions can be drawn.
1 There are large‐scale, low‐frequency, and sometimes very rapid changes in the distribution of atmospheric pressure over the North Pacific which are, in turn, reflected in ocean properties and circulation.
2 Oceanic ecosystems respond on similar time and space scales to variations in physical conditions.
3 Linkages between the atmosphere/ocean physics and biological responses are often different across time and space scales.
4 While the cases presented here demonstrate oceanic ecosystem response to climate forcing, they provide only hints of the mechanisms of interaction.
5 A model whereby ecosystem response to specified climate variation can be successfully predicted will be difficult to achieve because of scale mismatches and nonlinearities in the atmosphere–ocean–biosphere system.
A review of oceanographic and climate data from the North Pacific and Bering Sea has revealed climate events that occur on two principal time scales: a) 2-7 years (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), and b) inter-decadal (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO). The timing of ENSO events and of related oceanic changes at higher latitudes were examined. The frequency of ENSO was high in the 1980s. Evidence of ENSO forcing on ocean conditions in the North Pacific (Niño North conditions) showed ENSO events were more frequently observed along the West Coast than in the western Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and Eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Time series of catches for 30 region/species groups of salmon, and recruitment data for 29 groundfish and 5 non-salmonid pelagic species, were examined for evidence of a statistical relationship with any of the time scales associated with Niño North conditions or the PDO. Some flatfish stocks exhibited high autocorrelation in recruitment coupled with a significant step in recruitment in 1977 suggesting a relationship between PDO forcing and recruitment success. Five of the dominant gadid stocks (EBS and GOA Pacific cod, Pacific hake and EBS and GOA walleye pollock) exhibited low autocorrelation in recruitment. Of these, Pacific hake, GOA walleye pollock and GOA Pacific cod exhibited significantly higher incidence of strong year classes in years associated with Niño North conditions. These findings suggest that the PDO and ENSO may play an important role in governing year-class strength of several Northeast Pacific marine fish stocks.
The southernmost extension of winter ice cover varies interannually and on longer time scales, reflecting large‐scale changes in driving forces, especially in the position and intensity of the winter Aleutian Low Pressure System. A conspicuous pattern is alternating warm and cool periods of several years' duration. These variations in sea ice cover are reflected in the character of a subsurface cold pool, formed as stratification isolates the deeper cold waters from surface exchanges. The cold pool is better developed and more extensive in summers that follow deep southward penetration of winter sea ice. Interannual and decadal‐scale variations in the distributions of some fish stocks reflect those of ice and thermal conditions. In particular, the distribution of walleye pollock, Theragra chalcogramma, varies significantly with multiannual cool and warm years while Arctic cod, Boreogadus saida, is only present within the cold pool. The relation among climate variations, sea ice cover, subsurface thermal conditions, and fish distribution provides information on how climate affects marine ecosystems and may also have practical application in predicting fish distributions.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.