Pacific Basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production

Hollowed, Anne B.; Hare, Steven R.; Wooster, Warren S.

doi:10.1016/s0079-6611(01)00026-x

Cited by 197 publications

(126 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…18). The increased frequency of large year classes since the switch to a warm regime in 1976/1977 is consistent with this prediction (Hollowed et al, 2001). However, as the warm regime continues over time and several year classes have average to above average recruitment, the biomass of adult predatory fish (e.g., pollock, Pacific cod, and arrowtooth flounder) will increase, and control will switch to being primarily top-down (e.g., Bailey, 2000).…”

Section: The Ochsupporting

confidence: 68%

“…Indices of winter atmospheric and oceanic conditions, in conjunction with other parameters of ecosystems, have been used to identify shifts in climatic forcing and ecosystem response at decadal time scales (e.g., Trenberth and Hurrell, 1995;Mantua et al, 1997;Francis et al, 1998;Springer, 1998;Hare and Mantua, 2000;McFarlane et al, 2000;Hollowed et al, 2001). Two of these so-called ''regime shifts'' have been identified in the past 30 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

Hunt

Stabeno

Walters

et al. 2002

Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography

501

385

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We propose a new hypothesis, the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH), which predicts that pelagic ecosystem function in the southeastern Bering Sea will alternate between primarily bottom-up control in cold regimes and primarily top-down control in warm regimes. The timing of spring primary production is determined predominately by the timing of ice retreat. Late ice retreat (late March or later) leads to an early, ice-associated bloom in cold water (e.g., 1995, 1997, 1999), whereas no ice, or early ice retreat before mid-March, leads to an open-water bloom in May or June in warm water (e.g., 1996, 1998, 2000). Zooplankton populations are not closely coupled to the spring bloom, but are sensitive to water temperature. In years when the spring bloom occurs in cold water, low temperatures limit the production of zooplankton, the survival of larval/juvenile fish, and their recruitment into the populations of species of large piscivorous fish, such as walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias). When continued over decadal scales, this will lead to bottom-up limitation and a decreased biomass of piscivorous fish. Alternatively, in periods when the bloom occurs in warm water, zooplankton populations should grow rapidly, providing plentiful prey for larval and juvenile fish. Abundant zooplankton will support strong recruitment of fish and will lead to abundant predatory fish that control forage fish, including, in the case of pollock, their own juveniles. Piscivorous marine birds and pinnipeds may achieve higher production of young and survival in cold regimes, when there is less competition from large piscivorous fish for coldwater forage fish such as capelin (Mallotus villosus). Piscivorous seabirds and pinnipeds also may be expected to have high productivity in periods of transition from cold regimes to warm regimes, when young of large predatory species of fish are numerous enough to provide forage. The OCH predicts that the ability of large predatory fish populations to sustain fishing pressure will vary between warm and cold regimes.The OCH points to the importance of the timing of ice retreat and water temperatures during the spring bloom for the productivity of zooplankton, and the degree and direction of coupling between zooplankton and forage fish. in the biomass of large piscivorous fish and a concurrent decline in the biomass of forage fish, including age-1 walleye pollock, particularly over the southern portion of the shelf. Populations of northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) and seabirds such as kittiwakes (Rissa spp.) at the Pribilof Islands have declined, most probably in response to a diminished prey base. The available evidence suggests that these changes are unlikely the result of a decrease in total annual new primary production, though the possibility of reduced post-bloom production during summer remains. An ecosystem approach to management of the Bering Sea and its fisheries is of great importance if all o...

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Section: The Ochsupporting

confidence: 68%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

Hunt

Stabeno

Walters

et al. 2002

Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography

501

385

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…In addition, the North Pacific is one of the most productive marine resources in the world; therefore, understanding these mechanisms is very crucial to predict the changes in the marine ecosystem in the North Pacific [Mantua et al, 1997;Hollowed et al, 2002;Chavez et al, 2003;Peterson and Schwing, 2003]. So far, there exists a wealth of studies to examine the origin of the North Pacific climate variability on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales [Nitta and Yamada, 1989;Latif and Barnett, 1994;Lau and Nath, 1994;Miller et al, 1994;Trenberth and Hurrell, 1994;Mantua et al, 1997;Minobe, 1997;Giese and Carton, 1999;Miller and Schneider, 2000;Deser et al, 2004;Wu et al, 2005;Mestas-Nunez and Miller, 2006;Yeh et al, 2011].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A possible mechanism for the North Pacific regime shift in winter of 1998/1999

Yeh

Kim

2013

Geophysical Research Letters

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This study examines a possible mechanism for the North Pacific regime shift in the winter of 1998/1999. Since the 1976/1977 climate regime shift, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific has exhibited a long‐term warming trend in the western and central regions, which is mainly due to the two regime shifts that occurred in the winter of 1988/1989 and 1998/1999, respectively. In particular, the 1998/1999 regime shift is characterized by a dipole‐like structure along 40°N where a significant warming is prominent in the southwestern and central North Pacific. The slow dynamic adjustments of SST and zonal wind to the meridional heat exchange through thermal advection may be responsible for the 1998/1999 regime shift. We also assert that an intrinsic multidecadal SST oscillation in the North Pacific contributes to the 1998/1999 regime shift. Furthermore, another possibility, which is associated with the oceanic teleconnection from the tropics to the midlatitude, is also briefly discussed.

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“…Basin-scale conditions could influence nearshore systems through their linkages to offshore or terrestrial systems, as basin indices correlate well with offshore sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, and upwelling (Di Lorenzo et al 2008;Ainley and Hyrenbach 2010) and with terrestrial indicators such as freshwater discharge (Royer et al 2001;Papineau 2001;Neal et al 2002;Hickey et al 2010). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represent both decadal (e.g., PDO and NPGO) and interannual (e.g., ENSO) scales of climate variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean basin (Hollowed et al 2001) and are among the most consistent predictors of marine and terrestrial ecosystem production in the North Pacific Ocean and western United States, respectively (Neal et al 2002;Mundy 2005;Spies 2007;Black 2009;Menge et al 2009;Di Lorenzo et al 2013;Sydeman et al 2013). Interpretation of basin-scale relationships and their linkages to nearshore responses could be improved by a complementary analysis of organismal growth responses to local conditions.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Basin‐ and Local‐Scale Environmental Conditions on Nearshore Production in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

et al. 2016

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Nearshore marine habitats are productive and vulnerable owing to their connections to pelagic and terrestrial landscapes. To understand how ocean basin‐ and local‐scale conditions may influence nearshore species, we developed an annual index of nearshore production (spanning the period 1972–2010) from growth increments recorded in otoliths of representative pelagic‐feeding (Black Rockfish Sebastes melanops) and benthic‐feeding (Kelp Greenling Hexagrammos decagrammus) nearshore‐resident fishes at nine sites in the California Current and Alaska Coastal Current systems. We explored the influence of basin‐ and local‐scale conditions across all seasons at lags of up to 2 years to represent changes in prey quantity (1‐ or 2‐year time lags) and quality (within‐year relationships). Relationships linking fish growth to basin‐scale (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation index) and local‐scale (sea surface temperature, sea surface height anomalies, upwelling index, photosynthetically active radiation, and freshwater discharge) environmental conditions varied by species and current system. Growth of Black Rockfish increased with cool basin‐scale conditions in the California Current and warm local‐scale conditions in the Alaska Coastal Current, consistent with existing hypotheses linking climate to pelagic production on continental shelves in the respective regions. Relationships for Kelp Greenlings in the California Current were complex, with faster growth related to within‐year warm conditions and lagged‐year cool conditions. These opposing, lag‐dependent relationships may reflect differences in conditions that promote quantity versus quality of benthic invertebrate prey in the California Current. Thus, we hypothesize that benthic production is maximized by alternating cool and warm years, as benthic invertebrate recruitment is food limited during warm years while growth is temperature limited by cool years in the California Current. On the other hand, Kelp Greenlings grew faster during and subsequent to warm conditions at basin and local scales in the Alaska Coastal Current. Received November 3, 2015; accepted May 5, 2016

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Pacific Basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production

Cited by 197 publications

References 39 publications

Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

A possible mechanism for the North Pacific regime shift in winter of 1998/1999

Influence of Basin‐ and Local‐Scale Environmental Conditions on Nearshore Production in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

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