No abstract

No abstract

Multivariate time series are widely used in various fields such as finance, economics, and the stock market. One analysis model that is widely used for multivariate time series data is the VAR model. Vector autoregressive (VAR) is a model used to describe the relationship between several variables. The VAR model provides an alternative approach that is very suitable for forecasting purposes and is very suitable for solving economic data problems. The variables used in this study consisted of endogenous variables with closing prices of ICBP and INDF shares and exogenous variables with exchange rates collected from January 2017 to July 2020. In this study, the best model, VARX (1,0), was obtained. also the relationship between variables through the impulse response function and granger causality. Furthermore, forecasting is also carried out for the next 30 days using the best model, VARX (1,0).

Vector Error Correction Model is a cointegrated VAR model. This idea of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), which consists of a VAR model of the order p - 1 on the differences of the variables, and an error-correction term derived from the known (estimated) cointegrating relationship. Intuitively, and using the stock market example, a VECM model establishes a short-term relationship between the stock prices, while correcting with the deviation from the long-term comovement of prices. An Impulse Response Function traces the incremental effect of a 1 unit (or one standard deviation) shock in one of the variables on the future values of the other endogenous variables. Impulse Response Functions trace the incremental effect of the marketing action reflected in the shock. The data used in this analysis are 4 (four) daily plantation stocks prices in Indonesia with time period of January to July in three years which are 2018, 2019, and 2020. The objective of this study is to determine the relationship among 4 (four) stocks prices with VECM and to know the behaviour of each stocks prices with Impulse Response.

Time series analysis (time series) is one method with the aim to find out events that will occur in the future based on data and past circumstances. Time series are widely used in economics, business, environmental science, and finance. The analytical tool that is widely used to answer quantitative research problems is the Autoregressive Vector (VAR). The VAR model is used if the data is stationary. If the variable has cointegration and stationary at the first difference value, the VAR model is modified to become the Error Correction Model (VECM). Then we can find out the influence of variables with other variables by looking at the Impulse Response Function and Granger Causality. In this research, PT Kalbe Farma Tbk’s stock data will be analyzed. (KLBF) and PT Kimia Farma (Persero) Tbk (KAEF). The data used are weekly data from January 2010 to June 2020. Based on data analysis, it is known that the data is not stationary and there are unit roots. Furthermore, first differencing is done to make the data stationary. Because there was cointegration, a VECM analysis was performed and a VECM (p) was obtained with a lag of p = 4. So the best model for this research is VECM (4) with rank = 2. Causal relationships between variables using Granger Causality showed that KLBF influenced KAEF in the past. Based on IRF analysis, each variable gives a fluctuating response with itself and with other variables.