[1] The assimilative capacities of estuaries and coastal seas for effluent discharges are predominantly determined by the rates at which pollutant-bearing effluents are first dispersed and then flushed from the coastal region into the open ocean. The dispersion coefficients and flushing, as measured by the water residence time in the Persian Gulf (Arabian Gulf), were investigated using the three-dimensional numerical model Estuary, Lake and Coastal Ocean Model (ELCOM). The model was first validated using the R/V Mt. Mitchell expedition profile data, collected from 27 January to 26 February 1992 and from 13 May to 12 June 1992. The validated model was then used to compute the geographic variability of the horizontal dispersion coefficients K x throughout the gulf. Model results revealed that dispersion was principally driven by the shear associated with the tides, but along the Arabian coast, wind was an additional significant energy source for dispersion. The water residence time was found to be more than 3 years along the Arabian coast, but shorter along the Iranian coast.

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The Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (ROPME) Sea Area (RSA) in the northern Indian Ocean, which comprises the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the northern Arabian Sea, already experiences naturally extreme environmental conditions and incorporates one of the world’s warmest seas. There is growing evidence that climate change is already affecting the environmental conditions of the RSA, in areas including sea temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and sea level, which are set to continue changing over time. The cumulative impacts of these changes on coastal and marine ecosystems and dependent societies are less well documented, but are likely to be significant, especially in the context of other human stressors. This review represents the first regional synthesis of observed and predicted climate change impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems across the ROPME Sea Area and their implications for dependent societies. Climate-driven ecological changes include loss of coral reefs due to bleaching and the decline of fish populations, while socio-economic impacts include physical impacts from sea-level rise and cyclones, risk to commercial wild capture fisheries, disruption to desalination systems and loss of tourism. The compilation of this review is aimed to support the development of targeted adaptation actions and to direct future research within the RSA.

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