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The article sought to detect the impact of the value-added tax (VAT) policy on the enterprises’ asset allocation from the dual perspectives of the VAT input refund and the VAT rate. Based on the influenced mechanism of the VAT input refund and the tax burden effect (and the price effect) caused by the VAT rate, enterprises’ intertemporal optimal asset allocation models are constructed under the states of adopting the VAT input refund and maintaining the theoretical tax (non-)neutrality of VAT. When VAT rates of the general taxpayers are predicted to be reduced, we also use China’s manufacturing and economic data to simulate specific cases to verify propositions under different states. The results show that: (1) When the VAT output tax rate decreases: if returns to scale are diminishing, enterprises will increase the number of productive material assets and labor and reduce financial assets. (2) When the VAT input tax rate reduces: under the state of adopting the VAT input refund and maintaining the theoretical tax (non-)neutrality of VAT, if returns to scale are decreasing, enterprises will reduce the number of productive material assets and labor and increase financial assets. Under the state of adopting the VAT input refund and maintaining the theoretical tax neutrality of VAT, if returns to scale are increasing and the expected rate of return of financial assets is lower than the additional tax rate, or the enterprise has diminishing returns to scale and the expected rate of return of financial assets is higher than the additional tax rate, enterprises will increase the number of productive material assets and labor. (3) When VAT output and input tax rates reduce simultaneously: under the state of adopting the VAT input refund and maintaining the theoretical tax neutrality of VAT, if returns to scale are increasing and the expected return rate of financial assets is higher than the additional tax rate, the enterprise will reduce the number of productive material assets and labor and increase financial assets. Under the diminishing returns to scale in China’s national economy, the research conclusions endorse the rational necessity of the VAT policy change—VAT rate reduction to develop the entity economy and provide a reference for enterprises to make asset allocation decisions. The conclusions also provide possible changes in VAT policy for different countries according to their actual economic conditions.