Abstract. This paper contains a preliminary analysis of flood risk in Mediterranean countries, conducted within the framework of the FLASH European Project. All flood events recorded between 1990 and 2006 in the Mediterranean region have been included in the study. Results of previous international projects (STORM, SPHERE, AMPHORE, RI-NAMED and MEDEX), as well as information provided by FLASH Project partners and data included in scientific papers were the main source used in building this database. All the above information had been dispersed in various places, and an attempt was made here to create, for the first time, a verified and complete single database for the entire Mediterranean region. The work analyses the spatial and temporal distribution of flood events, as well as their social impact, with special attention to certain case studies that have been analysed in detail.

[1] The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds has the potential to be a key component for climate change predictions, yet is one of the least understood. It is possible that high aerosol loading can change the convection intensity and hence the electrical activity of thunderstorm clouds. Focusing on the Amazon dry season, where thousands of man-made forest fires inject smoke into the atmosphere, we studied the aerosol effects on thunderclouds. We used the ground-based World-Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) lightning measurements together with Aqua-MODIS aerosol and cloud data to show evidence for the transition between two opposing effects of aerosols on clouds. The first is the microphysical effect which is manifested in an increase in convective intensity (and electrical activity), followed by the radiative effect that becomes dominant with the increase in aerosol loading leading to a decrease in convective intensity.

A new parameter is introduced: the lightning potential index (LPI), which is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective thunderstorms. The LPI is calculated within the charge separation region of clouds between 0°C and −20°C, where the noninductive mechanism involving collisions of ice and graupel particles in the presence of supercooled water is most effective. As shown in several case studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with explicit microphysics, the LPI is highly correlated with observed lightning. It is suggested that the LPI may be a useful parameter for predicting lightning as well as a tool for improving weather forecasting of convective storms and heavy rainfall.

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