Why is there no balancing behavior in Southeast Asia vis‐à‐vis what many observers see as a “Chinese threat,” especially in the case of Indonesia? Despite all the concerns regarding the stability of the region, Indonesia is neither strengthening its power projection capability nor building a coalition to address China's growing power in the South China Sea. Indonesia's underbalancing behavior is the result of a strategic culture that influences its military and foreign policy thinking on threat perceptions and economic considerations, limiting the options that Indonesia can take vis‐à‐vis China. As a result, China as a state is not seen as a major, direct, and immediate threat that would warrant immediate action that may in turn jeopardize Indonesia's larger interest. Instead, domestic politics and security—especially public perceptions of how the government's friendship with China may benefit or hurt the government—remains the focus and the priority of the government.

Why Indonesia remains committed to maintain centrality of ASEAN in its Indo-Pacific strategy as a way to deter conflicts, especially in light of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s famous proclamation of “Global Maritime Fulcrum?” The main thrust of “Global Maritime Fulcrum” doctrine is that facing shifting geopolitical and economic power from the West to Asia, Indoneia needed to face the challenge by putting Indonesia’s interest back to the forefront of global political and economic discourse. Yet, by the end of the day, Indonesia remained committed in pushing for the centrality of ASEAN especially in dealing with potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region. By stressing the centrality of ASEAN, meaning that Indonesia is attempting to strengthen cooperation between the members of ASEAN and crafting a cooperative regional framework, Indonesia and ASEAN as a whole may be able to reduce the tension due to the clashing interest of the United States and China in Indo-Pacific region.

executive summary: This essay examines the changing relationship between the U.S. and China, the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on both their relationship and each country's external influence, and the implications for Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia. main argumentThe tension between the U.S. and China had already begun to rise before the Covid-19 pandemic, as China has been challenging U.S. global leadership for some time. But the pandemic has worsened this rivalry by reducing trust between the two powers. The U.S. has blamed China for what it sees as Beijing's mishandling of the pandemic's outbreak, and the new Biden administration is likely to maintain a hostile policy. China, on the other hand, will keep deflecting such accusations because accepting the blame will set back its ambition to be global leader and undermine the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party domestically. The pandemic has already cost China dearly, as states now see the country as less trustworthy. The post-Covid-19 world will be one that is far more dangerous and conflict-prone due to this lack of trust between great powers and between states in general. The adverse impacts will be strongly felt by Southeast Asia, and especially Indonesia, whose leadership in ASEAN could be eroded. policy implications • With rising tension between the U.S. and China, both countries will try to pull Southeast Asian states into their orbits. • In the case of China, its ham-fisted policies in the South China Sea will prevent the country from rallying Southeast Asian states fully to its side. • Given the strategic importance of Southeast Asia in the Sino-U.S. rivalry, the U.S. needs to prioritize rebuilding its relationships with regional states that were neglected by the Trump administration. • Indonesia has a difficult role to play in balancing the interests of both the U.S. and China while maintaining its informal leadership of ASEAN. Therefore, it needs to leverage its position within ASEAN to craft a common policy to achieve its national foreign policy objectives, notably maintaining regional stability, especially in the South China Sea.

Masalah keamanan di Papua Barat terus mendapatkan perhatian dari negara-negara lain. Indonesia yang bertindak untuk mempertahankan kedaulatannya di tanah Papua, dikecam sebagai pelanggar hak asasi penduduk Papua Barat, terutama oleh negara-negara di kawasan Pasifik. Sorotan ini menyebabkan Pemerintah Indonesia mengambil kebijakan untuk melaksanakan Pacific Exposition 2019 sebagai salah satu cara untuk memperbaiki citra Indonesia di kawasan Pasific. Artikel ini akan menjelaskan mengapa biro di birokrasi Indonesia membentuk kebijakan luar negeri dengan cepat dan dapat memperlihatkan reaksi dan mengambil langkah-langkah antisipasi yang diperlukan negara, terutama dibandingkan dengan menunggu persamaan pandangan dengan opini-opini masyarakat untuk menyelesaikan masalah yang sudah ada.

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