Penelitian ini berisi tentang prediksi atau forecasting data iklim di Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) tahun 2011, yakni jumlah hari terjadinya hujan dengan menggunakan metode Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Data yang digunakan yaitu data iklim di Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) dari tahun 2006 -2010, dengan menggunakan beberapa parameter error seperti Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Berdasarkan hasil simulasi data iklim di Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) tersebut, diperoleh prediksi jumlah hari terjadinya curah hujan pada tahun 2011 sebesar 226 hari dengan nilai MAD 20,8069, MSE 3,5569, RMSE 1,88597, dan MAPE 11,9297 . Dan prediksi jumlah hari terjadinya hujan pada tahun 2011 sebanyak 225,928 hari atau jika di bulatkan menjadi 226 hari dengan nilai parameter error MAD sebesar 20,8069, sehingga dapat disimpulkan pada tahun 2011 terjadi peningkatan jumlah hari terjadinya hujan di Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB).

The main thing in the development of education is the quality of education. One of the determinants of the quality of education is counseling guidance. The problem so far is that most students who have problems feel embarrassed in doing counseling directly to the BK teacher and usually consult with their friends so that they cannot solve the problems they face. This makes it difficult for BK teachers to deal with student problems, so we need a system that can help and solve problems experienced by students. The purpose of this study is to design an expert system that overcomes the problems suffered by students using the certainty factor method that can provide solutions based on the types of problems suffered by the students. The expert system development methodology in this study uses the waterfall methodology which consists of needs analysis, design, coding, and testing. The result of this research is in the form of an expert system application for counseling problem students who apply a web-based certainty factor method that can make it easier for students to find out the types of problems they face based on the problems symptoms entered. This study concludes that the expert system application that was built has a good level of convenience based on the results of usability testing using the SUS (System Usability Scale) method of 76.5%.