No abstract

Yellow fever (YF), an arboviral infection of major public health importance in Brazil, is associated with high mortality and high epidemic potential. We analysed confirmed YF cases from the National Surveillance System from 1998-2002 and assessed risk factors for death among hospitalised patients. Variables assessed included age, gender, clinical signs and laboratory findings. A logistic regression model was used to identify independent predictors of death among hospitalised patients. From 1998-2002, among 2117 suspected YF cases reported to Brazil's Ministry of Health, 251 (11.9%) had confirmed YF, of whom 217 (86.5%) were hospitalised and the case fatality rate was 44.2%. Factors associated with higher mortality in univariate analysis included male gender (relative risk (RR) 1.96, 95% CI 1.17-2.28), age >40 years (RR 2.61, 95% CI 1.25-5.45), jaundice (RR 2.66, 95% CI 2.12-3.35), serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) >1200 IU/l (RR 1.84, 95% CI 1.23-2.74), alanine aminotransferase >1500 IU/l (RR 2.09, 95% CI 1.38-3.17), total bilirubin >7.0mg/dl (RR 2.33, 95% CI 1.44-3.78), direct bilirubin >5.0mg/dl (RR 2.29, 95% CI 1.33-3.94) and blood urea nitrogen >100mg/dl (RR 5.77, 95% CI 1.43-23.22). In multivariate analysis, elevated AST and jaundice remained independently associated with higher mortality. These findings suggest that selected clinical and laboratory indicators may help clinicians recognise potentially fatal cases of YF.

Due to the risk of severe vaccine-associated adverse events, yellow fever vaccination in Brazil is only recommended in areas considered at risk for disease. From September 2008 through June 2009, two outbreaks of yellow fever in previously unvaccinated populations resulted in 21 confirmed cases with 9 deaths (case-fatality, 43%) in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and 28 cases with 11 deaths (39%) in Sao Paulo state. Epizootic deaths of non-human primates were reported before and during the outbreak. Over 5.5 million doses of yellow fever vaccine were administered in the two most affected states. Vaccine-associated adverse events were associated with six deaths due to acute viscerotropic disease (0.8 deaths per million doses administered) and 45 cases of acute neurotropic disease (5.6 per million doses administered). Yellow fever vaccine recommendations were revised to include areas in Brazil previously not considered at risk for yellow fever.

Seventy-seven human cases of sylvatic yellow fever were reported in Brazil during the period January-June 2000. The first cases were reported 1 week after New Year's day and originated at Chapada dos Veadeiros, a tourist canyon site in Goiás state, near Brasília, the Brazilian capital. The laboratory procedures used for diagnoses included serology with an IgM capture assay and plaque reduction neutralization test, virus isolation in suckling mice and C6/36 cells, and immunohistochemistry. All cases were diagnosed by at least two different laboratory procedures, with the exception of the first three fatal cases, which were diagnosed on the basis of clinical and epidemiological information. The cases were reported in eight Brazilian states as follows: Goiás with 64.9% (50 cases); Amazonas (1); Bahia (10); Distrito Federal (1); Mato Grosso (4); Minas Gerais (2); Pará (1); São Paulo (2); and Tocantins (6). Patient ages were within the following ranges: 13-74 years old (mean 34.3), 64 (84.4%) were male, especially agricultural workers (n = 30), but tourists (n = 11), carpenters (n = 4), fishermen (n = 4), students (n = 3), truck drivers (n = 3), and other people (n = 22) were also sickened. The case fatality rate was 50.6% (39/77). In Bahia state, a serologic survey that was carried out has suggested a symptomatic/asymptomatic coefficient of 1:4. Field studies developed in Distrito Federal, Goiás, and São Paulo states showed that Haemagogus janthinomys was the mosquito species associated with the transmission. A single strain was also obtained from Aedes scapularis in Bahia. Epizootic occurrence (monkey mortality) was observed in 49 municipalities mainly in Goiás state, where 40 municipalities made reports, 21 of which also diagnosed human cases. Data obtained by the National Institute of Meteorology in Brazil showed an increase in temperature and rain in December 1999 and the first 3 months of 2000 in Goiás and surrounding states, which perhaps has contributed to the intense and widespread transmission of the yellow fever virus. The relatively small number of cases probably reflects the extensive use of yellow fever 17D-vaccine during the last 3 years, in which about 45 million doses were used. During the last months of 1999, 16 and 11 yellow fever cases were reported in Tocantins and Goiás states, respectively. It is noteworthy that the last reported autochthonous cases of sylvatic yellow fever in São Paulo and Bahia, both states outside the endemic/enzootic area, had occurred in 1953 and 1948, respectively.

In Brazil, epizootics among New World monkey species may indicate circulation of yellow fever (YF) virus and provide early warning of risk to humans. Between 1999 and 2001, the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul initiated surveillance for epizootics of YF in non-human primates to inform vaccination of human populations. Following a YF outbreak, we analyzed epizootic surveillance data and assessed YF vaccine coverage, timeliness of implementation of vaccination in unvaccinated human populations. From October 2008 through June 2009, circulation of YF virus was confirmed in 67 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul State; vaccination was recommended in 23 (34%) prior to the outbreak and in 16 (24%) within two weeks of first epizootic report. In 28 (42%) municipalities, vaccination began more than two weeks after first epizootic report. Eleven (52%) of 21 laboratory-confirmed human YF cases occurred in two municipalities with delayed vaccination. By 2010, municipalities with confirmed YF epizootics reported higher vaccine coverage than other municipalities that began vaccination. In unvaccinated human populations timely response to epizootic events is critical to prevent human yellow fever cases.