A consensus based vulnerability assessment to climate change in Germany

Abstract

Purpose – This paper aims to propose a collaborative approach toward an integrated vulnerability assessment to climate change in Germany that attempts to bridge the gap between scientific output and policy demand. Design/methodology/approach – Conceptually, the approach follows the definition of vulnerability as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but it has modified this basic concept. It clearly distinguishes between three time slices (presence, near and remote future) not only regarding the change in the climatic conditions but also socio-economic development trends. Findings – The paper concentrates on the selected methodological framework, the collaborative research design and those preliminary results of the nationwide vulnerability assessment that are transferable to other settings. Practical implications – A Vulnerability Network (“Netzwerk Vulnerabilitaet”) emerged from an applied research project commissioned under the Adaptation Action Plan of the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety and the Federal Environment Agency. The assessment serves as evidence basis for the implementation of the German Adaptation Strategy. Thus, all relevant federal authorities and agencies are represented in the Vulnerability Network. Originality/value – The approach is the first really integrative vulnerability assessment for the whole Germany, as it considers not only 16 sectors but also interconnections between these sectors and cumulative effects for three different time slices. Moreover, the normative component of the assessment was clearly separated from the analytic one. The Vulnerability Network as a whole has been responsible for all normative decisions to be taken during the assessment procedure thus ensuring a wide understanding and acceptance of commonly achieved results.

Raumordnerische Risikovorsorge am Beispiel der Planungsregion Köln

“…Ihrem gesetzlichen Auftrag folgend kann sie eine wichtige Rolle in Bezug auf die Risikovorsorge übernehmen. Dies manifestiert sich primär auf der Ebene der Regionalplanung, da die Landesplanung maßstabsbedingt zwar Ziele und Grundsätze formulieren, aber keine differenzierte Risikoanalyse und keine daraus konzeptionellen Grundverständnis folgt (BMVBS/BBSR 2013b; Greiving/Zebisch/Schneiderbauer et al 2015). So können keine probabilistischen Aussagen etwa zu Hochwasserereignissen in der Zukunft getroffen werden, da die klimawandelbedingten Veränderungen der Frequenz und Magnitude von Extremwetterereignissen mit sehr hohen Unsicherheiten verbunden sind (Field/Barros/Stocker et al 2012;EEA 2012 Auch eine raumbezogene Multirisikobetrachtung wird in der Praxis der Regionalplanung bisher ausgeblendet, wäre aber angesichts der vielfältigen Wechselwirkungen und kumulativen Effekte etwa zwischen Natur-und Technikgefahren geboten (Greiving 2002;Reckien/Flacke/Dawson et al 2014).…”

Improving the Assessment of Potential and Actual Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Events Through a Parallel Modeling of Climatic and Societal Changes at Different Scales

“…This is not only relevant on the global level as a basis for emission scenarios, but also on the regional and local levels in order to derive tailor-made adaptation strategies (Birkmann and Mechler 2015;van Ruijven et al 2014). In this context, the assessment should be based on a scenario combination of climatic scenarios derived from an ensemble of climatic models and socioeconomic scenarios in order to reflect the bandwidth of potential future conditions (Greiving et al 2015, see also Figure 1).…”

“…The change of the sensitivity (i.e., demographic change, economic change and change in land-use patterns) may determineat least for rapidly growing or shrinking urban environmentsthe extent of climate-and weather-related impacts in the near future more significantly than the changing climate (temperature and precipitation mainly) itself. Due to this fact, for each time slice (present and future), a potential impact needs to be determined using either only recent monitoring data or only projections (for both, changes in the climate and the socioeconomic changes are taken into account) (Greiving et al 2015). In doing so, the dynamics of climate change impacts can be determined.…”

“…They are used as input for climate model runs"(van Vuuren et al 2011: 6). This (global) parallel modelling approach was further elaborated with stress placed on local and regional level (and land use at these levels) as a basis for assessment of possible local and regional climate impacts by van Ruijven et al (2014) andGreiving et al (2015).…”

Participatory Assessment of Multi Risks in Urban Regions—The Case of Critical Infrastructures in Metropolitan Lima

“…These policy documents clearly underline that adaptation processes require a transdisciplinary approach and broad stakeholder involvement [66,67]. A multi-hazard and multi-risk governance approach is required due to the interdependencies between the hazards and given cascading effects, as well as the vertical and horizontal interplay between the authorities responsible for assessing and managing these threads [68].…”