A Coupled Mathematical Model of the Dissemination Route of Short-Term Fund-Raising Fraud

Abstract

To effectively protect citizens’ property from the infringement of fund-raising fraud, it is necessary to investigate the dissemination, identification, and causation of fund-raising fraud. In this study, the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model, Back-Propagation (BP) neural network, Fault tree, and Bayesian network were used to analyze the dissemination, identification, and causation of fund-raising fraud. Firstly, relevant data about fund-raising fraud were collected from residents in the same area via a questionnaire survey. Secondly, the SIR model was used to simulate the dissemination of victims, susceptibles, alerts, and fraud amount; the BP neural network was used to identify the data of financial fraud and change the accuracy of the number analysis of neurons and hidden layers; the fault-tree model and the Bayesian network model were employed to analyze the causation and importance of basic events. Finally, the security measures of fund-raising fraud were simulated by changing the dissemination parameters. The results show that (1) for the spread of the scam, the scale of the victims expands sharply with the increase of the fraud cycle, and the victims of the final fraud cycle account for 12.5% of people in the region; (2) for the source of infection of the scam, the initial recognition rate of fraud by the BP neural network varies from 90.9% to 93.9%; (3) for the victims of the scam, reducing fraud publicity, improving risk awareness, and strengthening fraud supervision can effectively reduce the probability of fraud; and (4) reducing the fraud rate can reduce the number of victims and delay the outbreak time. Improving the alert rate can reduce victims on a large scale. Strengthening supervision can restrict the scale of victims and prolong the duration of fraud.

The Psychology and Sociology of a Fraudster: Implications for Today Accounting Profession

“…Instead, we should remember the adage that scientists who are looking for extraterrestrial life sometimes use: "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." Due to all of these factors, a lot of corporate and economic crimes go unpunished while having serious financial repercussions, and white-collar crime is still mainly an unmanaged risk in firms Yang, Su, Wang, & Xu, (2022).…”

“…Sociologists are particularly interested in fraud because it reveals a variety of social network characteristics, both good and bad (Iuga et al, 2016). These social networks and linkages have a negative side that increases opportunities for dishonesty, vice, and improper behaviour (Yang, Su, Wang, & Xu, 2022). Inappropriate usage of social networks places a special emphasis on trust and human relationships.…”

Financial frauds’ victim profiles in developing countries

“…In contrast, Lea et al (2009) assert that prior knowledge is what increases the chance of falling victim, because in the face of such knowledge the victim behaves with less caution. Many times, victims of investment frauds have prior knowledge in the field of financial investment ( Xiao and Porto, 2021 ; Yang et al, 2022 ). Rebovich and Layne (2000) found that victims of investment frauds are more financially literate than the general population.…”

Reliability and Service Life Analysis of Airbag Systems

“…Pang et al [18] analyzed and diagnosed the electromagnet manufacturing process based on fuzzy fault trees and evidence theory. Yang et al [19] used models such as fault trees to analyze the spread, identification, and causes of capital-raising frauds. Zhang et al [20] used a fault tree model to analyze the collision risk factors of ship collisions, which can effectively guide rescue efforts.…”