A Framework for Assessing Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic to Inform Policymaking in Virginia

Price, Carter C.; Propp, A.

doi:10.7249/rra323-1

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 15 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Secondly, the deep transfer learning (DTL) model [ 61 ] focuses on real-time remote surveillance and monitoring of mask-wearing protocols at points of interest. Thirdly, the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Center PatchSim COVID-19 [ 62 ] hybrid model is an extension for the SEIR model [ 63 ] that includes mobility tracing [ 64 ]. Fourth, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation COVID-19 (IHME COVID-19) model also builds on the SEIR model to assess whether COVID-19 case rates would exceed the capacity of healthcare facilities [ 65 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of Select Epidemiological Modeling and the Rise of Population Sentiment Analysis: A Literature Review and COVID-19 Sentiment Illustration

Daghriri

Proctor

Matthews

2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

With social networking enabling the expressions of billions of people to be posted online, sentiment analysis and massive computational power enables systematic mining of information about populations including their affective states with respect to epidemiological concerns during a pandemic. Gleaning rationale for behavioral choices, such as vaccine hesitancy, from public commentary expressed through social media channels may provide quantifiable and articulated sources of feedback that are useful for rapidly modifying or refining pandemic spread predictions, health protocols, vaccination offerings, and policy approaches. Additional potential gains of sentiment analysis may include lessening of vaccine hesitancy, reduction in civil disobedience, and most importantly, better healthcare outcomes for individuals and their communities. In this article, we highlight the evolution of select epidemiological models; conduct a critical review of models in terms of the level and depth of modeling of social media, social network factors, and sentiment analysis; and finally, partially illustrate sentiment analysis using COVID-19 Twitter data.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of Select Epidemiological Modeling and the Rise of Population Sentiment Analysis: A Literature Review and COVID-19 Sentiment Illustration

Daghriri

Proctor

Matthews

2022

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Another interesting study was carried out by Venkateswaran and Damani (2020) where they developed a customized system dynamics model for India to calibrate the effectiveness of several actions such as testing, tracing, social distancing, and hygiene in tackling COVID-19. Price and Propp (2020) developed a framework for assessing different late-stage models of COVID-19 through an extensive study conducted in Virginia where the study aimed at aiding policymakers through the developed system dynamics model to determine the plans to relax physical distancing by strategy.…”

Section: Related Work System Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utilising Causal Loop Diagram to Explore Public Integrity for Effective COVID-19 Preventive Measures in Malaysia

Cheng

Fadzline²,

Mohamad³

et al. 2023

JGI

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

COVID-19 creates an unprecedented crisis in our lifetimes. The escalating rates of COVID-19 infection brings calamity to many parts of the world. Malaysia has been in a fierce battle with COVID-19 since March 2020 but the endgame is still obscure. Since the beginning of the pandemic, many preventive measures are implemented by the Malaysian government. Some of the strategies such as lockdown and movement restrictions are effective in flattening the curve of COVID-19. However, over a period of time, negative unintended consequences such as pandemic fatigue emerged due to prolong confinement. Lockdown is also an expensive measure that impacts the community livelihood and subsequently risking Malaysia’s economy. After two years of the pandemic, with the success of COVID-19 vaccination programme, Malaysia may be ready to return to normalcy. However, the world is alarmed with new deadly COVID-19 variant which puts Malaysia in constant risk of resurge of cases. This paper aims to understand how implemented preventive measures interacted with each other and collectively influence the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia. Only by understanding these interaction, more effective, economical and sustainable counter measures that safe lives without compromising people livelihood can be introduced. The causal loop diagram, an essence of system dynamics is developed to capture these interconnections and provide meaningful insights. The role of community and public integrity are also observed in this study.

show abstract

“…For evacuations conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic, additional risk of transmission is introduced via two main modes: (1) aggregation of large populations in community reception centers (in particular, large open shared spaces such as auditoriums and gymnasiums), and (2) community interaction of those that self-evacuate by car as they interact in gas stations, restaurants, and ultimately within the homes of family and friends. In preparation for the 2020 hurricane season, studies indicated that evacuations, both self-evacuation by car as well as structured evacuation to communal shelters, would result in a statistically significant increase in COVID-19 transmission in both the evacuated and receiving populations ( Pei et al 2020 ; Price et al 2020 ). The increase in transmission occurred even in the baseline scenario, where the origin and destination locations had the same rate of community transmission, and were even more pronounced when the destination location had a higher rate of community transmission.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Community spread associated with evacuations was estimated to result in tens of thousands of excess COVID infections and hundreds of excess fatalities from evacuees and could be a major source of infectious spread ( Pei et al 2020 ; Price et al 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compensatory Considerations for Radiological Emergency Response and Public Protective Actions during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Leek

Semancik

2022

Health Physics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Epidemiological evidence and models have demonstrated that the current COVID-19 pandemic introduces a significant public risk to implementing large-scale community evacuations in response to disasters. While guidance documented in the US Environmental Protection Agency Protective Action Guidance (PAG) Manual is widely accepted as the standard basis for public and emergency worker protective actions for a radiological emergency, it is based primarily on assessing the risks associated with the radiological factors alone. However, as demonstrated in response to the nuclear incident in Fukushima, these events seldom occur in isolation from other risk-inducing events. Today, the COVID-19 pandemic represents a significant public health risk that must also be considered alongside the radiation risks in determining appropriate public and emergency worker protection action decisions. In particular, the significant public health risks associated with community transmission and mortality of COVID-19 challenge our most familiar and rehearsed radiological response strategies. The 1992 and 2017 US Environmental Protection Agency PAG manuals allow for considerations in protective action decision making. Much of the radiation emergency response community has been conditioned through decades of structured training and exercises to focus public protection considerations on specific guidelines referenced numerically in tables within the manual. Discussion regarding adjustment of specific PAG values is provided in the footnotes and bases portions of the PAG manual but is often not included in jurisdictional plans or routinely considered in exercises. However, when properly applied, the protective action guidance provides the necessary flexibility for decision-makers to account for additional public health risks or impediments, and jurisdictions can use this guidance to build a more effective response strategy. The authors have applied the full guidance and flexibility provided in the 2017 US Environmental Protection Agency PAG Manual to develop more specific guidance for their respective jurisdictions’ radiation emergency response plans and will outline a process for consideration of protective action decisions to maximize the protection of public health and safety.

show abstract

A Framework for Assessing Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic to Inform Policymaking in Virginia

Cited by 5 publications

References 15 publications

Evolution of Select Epidemiological Modeling and the Rise of Population Sentiment Analysis: A Literature Review and COVID-19 Sentiment Illustration

Evolution of Select Epidemiological Modeling and the Rise of Population Sentiment Analysis: A Literature Review and COVID-19 Sentiment Illustration

Utilising Causal Loop Diagram to Explore Public Integrity for Effective COVID-19 Preventive Measures in Malaysia

Compensatory Considerations for Radiological Emergency Response and Public Protective Actions during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About