A simple dynamic model explains the diversity of island birds worldwide

Valente, Luís; Phillimore, Albert B.; Melo, Martim; Warren, Ben; Clegg, Sonya M.; Havenstein, Katja; Tiedemann, Ralph; Illera, Juan Carlos; Thébaud, Christophe; Aschenbach, Tina; Etienne, Rampal S.

doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2022-5

Cited by 118 publications

(192 citation statements)

References 101 publications

(85 reference statements)

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“…MacArthur & Wilson's theory of island biogeography 9 . Phenomenological models, such as simple linear time-or environmental-dependencies, have indeed also been used, but typically either as null models 7 or as the simplest way to model the effect of an explanatory environmental variable on evolutionary rates 8,10 .…”

Section: Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prior hypotheses or regularization allow inference of diversification histories from extant timetrees

Morlon

Härtig

Robin

2020

Preprint

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AbstractPhylogenies of extant species are widely used to study past diversification dynamics1. The most common approach is to formulate a set of candidate models representing evolutionary hypotheses for how and why speciation and extinction rates in a clade changed over time, and compare those models through their probability to have generated the corresponding empirical tree. Recently, Louca & Pennell2 reported the existence of an infinite number of ‘congruent’ models with potentially markedly different diversification dynamics, but equal likelihood, for any empirical tree (see also Lambert & Stadler3). Here we explore the implications of these results, and conclude that they neither undermine the hypothesis-driven model selection procedure widely used in the field nor show that speciation and extinction dynamics cannot be investigated from extant timetrees using a data-driven procedure.

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Section: Andmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prior hypotheses or regularization allow inference of diversification histories from extant timetrees

Morlon

Härtig

Robin

2020

Preprint

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“…However, the origin of this biogeographic pattern must be interpreted cautiously as it can be produced by different processes, including multiple independent colonization events from different source populations, repeated colonizations from the same ancestral source population or withinisland diversification after colonization by an ancestral stock [3,8,9]. Being able to discriminate among these processes is a prerequisite for revealing the geographical and selective contexts underlying population divergence, and is ultimately critical for understanding the factors promoting or preventing evolutionary radiations [3,4,6,[10][11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Within-island diversification in a passerine bird

et al. 2020

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The presence of congeneric taxa on the same island suggests the possibility of in situ divergence, but can also result from multiple colonizations of previously diverged lineages. Here, using genome-wide data from a large population sample, we test the hypothesis that intra-island divergence explains the occurrence of four geographical forms meeting at hybrid zones in the Reunion grey white-eye (Zosterops borbonicus), a species complex endemic to the small volcanic island of Reunion. Using population genomic and phylogenetic analyses, we reconstructed the population history of the different forms. We confirmed the monophyly of the complex and found that one of the lowland forms is paraphyletic and basal relative to others, a pattern highly consistent with in situ divergence. Our results suggest initial colonization of the island through the lowlands, followed by expansion into the highlands, which led to the evolution of a distinct geographical form, genetically and ecologically different from the lowland ones. Lowland forms seem to have experienced periods of geographical isolation, but they diverged from one another by sexual selection rather than niche change. Overall, low dispersal capabilities in this island bird combined with both geographical and ecological opportunities seem to explain how divergence occurred at such a small spatial scale.

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“…A decreasing isolation of Lake Biwa due to a larger drainage basin (Figure S4) should, in addition to its effect on colonization, decrease the rate of island‐mainland differentiation (‘anagenesis’; e.g. Valente et al., 2020). The corresponding model for this scenario (M8) showed an unexpected increase in rate of anagenesis and received low BIC support.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This reduces extinction risk (Rosindell & Phillimore, 2011) while allowing for higher opportunities for in‐situ cladogenetic speciation (Losos & Schluter, 2000). Moreover, increasing island isolation has a negative effect on colonization rates and a positive effect on the number of species originated via in‐situ cladogenesis and island‐mainland differentiation (‘anagenesis’; Valente et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lake expansion elevates equilibrium diversity via increasing colonization

Hauffe

Delicado

Etienne

et al. 2020

Journal of Biogeography

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Aim Rates of colonization, speciation and extinction determine species richness and endemism in insular systems. The general dynamic model of island biogeography (GDM) predicts that speciation and extinction rates depend on island area and elevation via their control on ecological limits to diversification and therefore covary with an island's geological history. Additionally, the colonization rate may increase with area and elevation through the ‘target effect’, which can be mediated by reduced ‘environmental filtering’. Here we test whether the area and depth expansion of an island‐like ecosystem, a lake, caused a shift in diversity dynamics. Location Lake Biwa, Japan, whose geological history and biota are well documented. Taxon Fishes. Methods We extended the phylogenetic island biogeography framework DAISIE (Dynamic Assembly of Island biota through Speciation, Immigration and Extinction) to accommodate time‐shifts in macroevolutionary rates and in carrying capacity. Using phylogenetic information on colonization and speciation times for the complete Lake Biwa fish community (70 taxa), we tested for a shift in macroevolutionary assembly rates and reconstructed the temporal diversity trajectory in the lake. We assessed the power to identify a shift through a wide range of scenarios and benchmarked against simulated fossil records. Results We detected an increase in colonization rate of fishes at 0.2 million years ago (Ma), with limited support for the existence of ecological limits. The reconstructed diversity trajectory was close to a source‐sink equilibrium diversity prior to the shift and remained well below a new shift‐driven elevated equilibrium thereafter. We found sufficient power to identify an increase in colonization rate up to 1.5 Ma, whereas extinction concealed the signal of earlier shifts. Main conclusions The fish diversity dynamics of Lake Biwa show a response to changes in area and depth and phylogenies carry a signature of these changes. The detected increase in colonization rate following Lake Biwa's expansion, elevating the fish diversity, is unlikely due to a predicted increase in ecological limits feeding back on colonization rate. We therefore call for (additional) explanations: the target effect, whereby larger islands attract more species, and reduced environmental filtering due to higher habitat diversity associated with increased lake area/depth.

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A simple dynamic model explains the diversity of island birds worldwide

Cited by 118 publications

References 101 publications

Prior hypotheses or regularization allow inference of diversification histories from extant timetrees

Prior hypotheses or regularization allow inference of diversification histories from extant timetrees

Within-island diversification in a passerine bird

Lake expansion elevates equilibrium diversity via increasing colonization

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