A systematic analysis of the spatial migration patterns and the linkages between market components in Greater Manchester, United Kingdom

Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to bring together research on housing market area, submarket and household migration into a systems approach that helps us gain a better understanding of the structure and dynamics of a housing market and identify housing problems for a large metropolitan area. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a geographic information system (GIS)-based method with simple quantitative techniques, including spatial analysis, location analysis, house price clustering and cross-tabulation. The analysis is based on migration data from the 2011 Census, house price data from the Land Registry in 2011 for Greater Manchester at the ward level and the output areas level. Findings The results show that different submarkets and housing market areas had different patterns of spatial migration and connections with other areas. Through a systematic analysis of migration and house price in combination, it also found a close connection between destination submarkets and the ages of migrants and identified specific problematic patterns for a large metropolitan area. Research limitations/implications The interactions between the owner-occupied sector and the social and private rented sectors are arguably an important omission from the analysis. Also, it is acknowledged that clustering ward units based on price differentials is subject to distortions in terms of specification, size and shape. Moreover, the use of the large samples may result in very small p-values, leading to the problem of the rejection of the predefined hypothesis. Practical implications A systematic analysis of migration and house price in combination may be used to gain a better understanding of the housing market dynamics and identify housing problems systematically for a large metropolitan. It may help to identify low-demand areas, high-demand areas and assist planners with decisions in allocating suitable land for new housing constructions. Social implications The GIS-based method introduced in the paper could be considered as an effective approach to provide a better basis for determining policy interventions and public investment designed to allocate land resources effectively and improve transport systems to change existing problematic migration patterns. Originality/value This paper fills a gap in the international literature in relation to adopting a systems approach that analyses migration and house price data sets in combination to systematically explore migration patterns and linkages and identify housing problems for a large metropolitan area. This systems approach can be applied in any metropolitan area where migration and house price data are available.

Network analysis of comovements among newly-built residential house price indices of seventy Chinese cities

“…Fundamental time-series models, such as the VAR and VECM, and different varieties of their variations have been applied widely to perform such analysis (Vishwakarma, 2021;Ji and Bhandari, 2022;Squires et al, 2022). Among previous studies with diverse focuses, one line of work has paid close attention to spatial analysis of prices (Doan and Yudono et al, 2021;Moallemi et al, 2021). For example, focusing on Case-Shiller house price indices during 1995-2009, Zhu et al (2013 investigate spatial links among price returns, idiosyncratic risks and price volatilities based upon 19 regional markets in the US by using a dynamic space panel model, which includes generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity terms and spatial weight matrices.…”