A tale of two voles: A response to Rosenberg 2019

Forsman, Eric D.; Swingle, James K.; Lesmeister, Damon B.; Marks-Fife, Chad A.; Linnell, Mark A.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2019.03.050

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Across their range, tree voles are clustered in optimal habitat (Forsman et al, 2019). Because historical occupancy and abundance records were incomplete, we could not use them to structure simulated distributions to replicate the 1986 starting conditions in the model.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characterizing long‐term population conditions of the elusive red tree vole with dynamic individual‐based modeling

Heinrichs

Marcot

Linnell

et al. 2023

Conservat Sci and Prac

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Old growth forests are declining globally, threatening dependent wildlife. Many arboreal old-growth obligates, such as the threatened red tree vole, are difficult to monitor for changes in habitat occupancy, and abundance. Yet, conservation planning relies on this information to prevent population declines. We integrated a range of species, habitat, and landscape change information to develop a dynamic habitat-population model. The spatial individualbased model simulated dynamic patterns of occupancy that responded to annual habitat maps, describing 36 years of observed change. We simulated population dynamics and local movement to characterize changes in occupancy and abundance, and the capacity of remaining habitat to support red tree voles. Red tree vole redistribution patterns strongly corresponded to wildfire footprints and timber extraction locations. Population strongholds are likely to exist in clumped pockets of old-growth forest that were unaffected by wildfire and in protected old forest reserves. However, the exact number and locations of local clusters remain uncertain. Simulated population losses occurred at different paces in different places, underscoring the need for recurring evaluation of population changes with field occupancy surveys and modeled evaluations that can anticipate potential connectivity and extirpation thresholds. This modeling approach was effective at leveraging existing information for a data-light species to assess how historical changes to the quantity, quality, and configuration of habitat likely influenced the potential landscape capacity, species abundance, and distribution. Dynamic individual-based modeling can benefit conservation planning for red tree vole and other reclusive forest species by providing biologically nuanced assessments of abundance and distribution. Such models can also project the long-term benefits and impacts of spatially explicit land management plans.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They often build more than one nest within their home range and accumulate inactive nests in proximity to actively used nests. These factors contribute to uncertain estimates of occupancy, density, abundance, and demography (Forsman et al, 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%