Achieving sustainable and climate‐resilient fisheries requires marine ecosystem forecasts to include fish condition

Abstract

Marine ecosystem forecasting is an important innovation in fisheries science with considerable value for industry and management, providing new data‐driven means of predicting the distribution and availability of commercially exploited fish stocks over a range of timescales, including near‐real‐time and seasonal. Marine ecosystem forecasting is rapidly advancing as a field, yet tools produced for fisheries to date focus primarily on predicting species distributions. The next generation of marine ecosystem forecasting products could be enhanced by also incorporating predictions of biological characteristics of fish caught, such as body condition and epidemiological status, thereby expanding the utility of these methods beyond predicting distribution alone. Improving the biological dimensions of marine ecosystem forecasting could allow for optimization of efficiencies in wild‐capture fisheries by minimizing discarding and waste and maximizing the value of landed fish. These advancements are of direct benefit to industry and management, address several of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to fisheries sustainability and have the potential to support the maintenance of global food and micronutrient security under rapidly changing environmental conditions. Here, we describe the current state of the art in marine ecosystem forecasting; review the physical‐biological linkages that underlie variability in the body condition of commercially valuable fish and shellfish with particular reference to marine climate change; and outline key considerations for the next generation of marine ecosystem forecasting tools for wild‐capture fisheries.

Forecast‐ready models to support fisheries' adaptation to global variability and change

“…Therefore, it cannot be assumed that intrinsic drivers of species movement such as spawning cycles are being represented adequately. Ecosystem models that incorporate multiple components, including mechanistic links between the physical environment and living marine resources across several trophic levels as well as human dimensions, may provide a better predictive skill than simple correlative models (Bolin et al, 2021). However, these must be developed at the appropriate scale and resolution to provide utility for fisheries management (Audzijonyte et al, 2019; Pethybridge et al, 2020).…”

Nutritional quality of eastern school whiting (Sillago flindersi) under contemporary and future environmental conditions

“…Fishing practices that are targeted at maximising seafood quality yields may become a focus for future management with the growing impacts of climate change on fisheries. The growing impacts of climate change on marine resource use and food security are driving the need for future fisheries forecasts to include multiple biological parameters such as seafood quality and epidemiological status (Bolin et al, 2021). Indeed, seasonal to sub‐seasonal forecasting of other species' responses to environmental variability is already transforming marine resource management from being reactive to proactive (Tommasi et al, 2017).…”

Fish condition as an indicator of stock status: Insights from condition index in a food‐limiting environment

“…Such information could then be used in stock assessment and the associated decision‐making. Many authors therefore generally recommend the use of condition index in fisheries management but do not provide practical means of doing so (Anderson & Neumann, 1996; Blackwell et al, 2000; Bolin et al, 2021; Lloret et al, 2012; Stevenson & Woods, 2006). The true potential of condition index for fisheries management cannot be realized because understanding of correlations between individual‐level processes and population‐level responses is lacking.…”